Gavin Robinson tops mini exit poll at sample polling station in East Belfast

The survey was carried out in Elmgrove Primary school, where this newspaper has carried out polls in the three previous general elections (as well as in the last two assembly elections). The polling station tends to vote closely to the constituency as a whole, and so could be described as a ‘bell weather’ location — one that gives an indication of voting trends in a wider area — which is why we keep returning there. The News Letter spoke to voters leaving Elmgrove between 7.45am and 5pm and at the end of our tally we had: • Robinson 159 votes • Long 93 votes • Ulster Unionist Carl McClean 14 votes • Spoiled votes 2 (two respondents who said they had been happy with no one) • Declined to reveal preference 165 Robinson was ahead in our Elmgrove by a slightly narrower margin at Elmgrove than 2017, when the DUP had 174 votes in our exit poll and Alliance had 91. The findings suggested that Mr Robinson will win again overall by a decisive margin, but with a smaller majority than 2017. In each of our three previous general election and two previous Stormont exit polls (see details at the bottom of this article), the result was published online as soon as polling stations closed, and before there was any other indication of how people had voted in East Belfast. On each occasion, the mini exit poll finding was similar to the result that would later emerge for the whole seat, albeit somewhat more unionist and somewhat less Alliance than the overall average across the constituency. However, while Elmgrove leans more unionist and less Alliance than East Belfast as a whole, there has not yet been an exit poll there that was completely out of step with the ultimate outcome in the seat. This means that it has previously given a clear indication of the final result. • Comments from some of the exit poll participants: Among the large number of DUP voters at Elmgrove were several families who revealed that all of them had voted for the party. This included the Fergusons – comprising Rebecca Ferguson and her grandparents Charlotte and Robert Ferguson, who travelled to the station together. It was Rebecca’s third time voting DUP. Her grandfather, Robert, said: “I have voted DUP all my life, and my father did too, starting way back, when the party was founded.” Two more recent DUP voters were Roland Faulkner and Dupe Faulkner, who were among three Nigerian couples that the News Letter spoke to yesterday as they emerged from the primary school, all of whom said they were voting DUP. Dupe explained: “We looked at the DUP manifesto and liked what they said about the NHS and looking after children. We want a soft Brexit and the DUP said they wanted no borders.” A convert to the DUP yesterday was the loyalist and community worker, Raymond Laverty, who said he normally votes Ulster Unionist at Westminster level, and sometimes PUP at local level. He was annoyed at the UUP failure to stand down for the DUP in South Belfast, where the SDLP has been tipped to win the seat after Sinn Fein stood down in Claire Hanna’s favour. “Emma Little Pengelly needed all the help she can get and yet they stood against her,” Mr Laverty said. “Our backs are to the wall.” Multiple Alliance voters took almost the opposite view to Mr Laverty. The News Letter even spoke to a number of such voters who had voted Sinn Fein in the last election, albeit in other constituencies, since when they had moved to East Belfast, where the party is not standing in this election. One young man from Newry, who did not want to be named, said he would have probably voted tactically for Alliance in East Belfast even if the republican party had fielded a candidate. A former SDLP voter from Co Down, Shauna McAteer, said she was among those backing Naomi Long in this contest. “Alliance might make a difference this time,” she said. Philip Hammond, a music teacher and composer, said that he no longer had much faith in the Union with Great Britain after the UK vote for Brexit. “It has made me pro-Irish unity,” he said. “I spend a lot of time in America and the UK on its own will find that it is a small country.” He added: “Alliance is the centre line, non sectarian.” The News Letter found 14 voters out of 268 who expressed a preference who said they were supporting the Ulster Unionist Carl McClean, suggesting that the UUP vote would be higher than in 2017, albeit still small (then the UUP got 1,400 votes in East Belfast). One such voter was Kirsten Davidson, who said: “With the Conservatives not standing here, the UUP are the next most conservative. Other unionists are just Ulster nationalists.” Another voter, who said he had voted UUP last time but now was backing Alliance, did not want to be named because he is formerly from Ballybeen estate, where he thinks there is overwhelming support for the DUP. He said: “The DUP mishandled Brexit. Boris is a disaster. Normally I wouldn’t vote Alliance but the DUP were foolish to nail their colours to his mast.” A DUP voter, Jordan Cunningham, was motivated mainly by the party’s opposition to abortion. Aged 26, Jordan, a Christian, said: “I recognise criticisms of the DUP and don’t agree with their every policy but being pro life is important to me and many young people.” Another voter, Francis O’Neill-Rodgers, is ex-military and said Alliance had joined with nationalists to oppose the Irish Guards getting the freedom of Belfast. “They have done that sort of thing ever since,” he said. But Lisa Cunningham-Black was fed up with the DUP. “It is my first time voting in 10 years,” she said, before explaining her motivation to come out this time for Alliance. “The DUP have too much of a stranglehold on politics. “It is time for change.” • See below previous findings at Elmgrove (with, in brackets, the vote that would have been expected if such a sample of voters had perfectly reflected the seat): • June 2017 general election DUP 174 votes (157) Alliance 91 votes (102) Ulster Unionists 5 (9) SF 3 (6) SDLP 2 (1) Conservatives 2 (3) Green 2 Spoiled vote 3. A further 158 people would not say how they voted. • March 2017 Assembly DUP 66 (67) Alliance 60 (56) PUP 17 (12) UUP 16 (23) TUV 7 (4) Green 6 (6) SDLP 4 Sinn Fein 2 (5) Lab 1 Others (5) Total 179 Won’t say 119 • May 2016 Assembly DUP 60 (69) Alliance 59 (54) Ulster Unionist 23 (21) Green 14 (11) PUP 10 (9) Hutton 10 Others 12 Others (24) Total 188 Won’t say 99 • May 2015 General Gavin Robinson DUP 131 (123) Naomi Long All 102 (107) Neil Wilson Conservative 10 (7) Ross Brown Green 6 (7) Won’t say 55 • May 2010 General: Peter Robinson 53 (49) Naomi Long 52 (56) Trevor Ringland (UUP-Tory) 23 (32) David Vance (TUV) 22 (8) Won’t say 42