A POTENTIAL rise in tourism sparked by the stronger euro is one of the few bright spots in an otherwise cloudy forecast, a leading economist has claimed.
Predicting that the Northern Ireland economy with slow further before a likely improvement in 2009, Ulster Bank economist Richard Ramsey said exporters must capitalise on the opportunities presented.
His comments come with the publication of the b
ank’s economic review which warns that growth in Northern Ireland will slow to one per cent this year, with unemployment also set to rise in the coming months.
In a more optimistic vein, it predicts a ‘marginal’ upturn by next year.
“The economy will experience expansion this year, but the rate of growth will be significantly constrained by factors including a slowdown in public sector expenditure, the ongoing credit crunch and difficulties in the local housing market,” said Mr Ramsey.
“We have already seen evidence of a slowdown in private sector activity, with the continuing contraction of the local construction industry central to this trend.
“Construction has been a key economic driver in recent years and, as a share of total employment, is currently larger than in any other region of the UK. Therefore, the construction slowdown is hitting hard.”
Job losses in construction as well as in the manufacturing sector, he said, were likely to outweigh any employment gains that might be made in the services sector.
“We therefore expect Northern Ireland’s unemployment rate, which has been at record low levels in recent years, to rise towards five per cent.”
The full article contains 262 words and appears in News Letter newspaper.
