That is a very bad result for them and it will raise difficult questions about leadership and strategy – the sort of questions which used to be asked in the UUP a few years ago.

It was a good day for the TUV, albeit probably for the wrong reasons. I accept that the bulk of the TUV vote is a response to what many regard as the DUP’s roll-over in May 2007 and a seemingly very comfortable working relationship with Sinn Fein. But I don’t understand what Jim Allister intends to do with his vote. There’s no going back to the drawing board to re-write the Belfast or St Andrews Agreements, so how does he propose to deal with the Sinn Fein presence in government? That is something he will have to address and answer fairly soon.

It’s too early to say yet what the result means for the UUP-Conservative relationship. But Jim Nicholson does appear to have improved on the UUP’s performance since the 2004 Euro election and also the UUP’s 2007 Assembly result. If that is the case then it has been a good election for the UUP and will be interpreted as a signal for them to continue building political and electoral arrangements with the Conservatives. And that, of course, will force others to consider their own positions.

But the key message to come from this election is the continuing division within unionism. In 2007 there was a very clear two-way division, with the DUP taking about two-thirds. Today there is a three-way division, with the UUP/DUP/TUV in or around about a third each. If that remains the pattern at the general election (which will come before April 2010), and the Assembly and council elections in 2011, then more seats will be lost to nationalism.

I have long argued that there is room for two mainstream pro-Union parties in Northern Ireland. There isn’t room for three of them, though. So the next few months are going to be very interesting indeed within unionist political circles and I wouldn’t be surprised if the DUP lost a few MLAs to both the UUP and TUV in the process. Yet when all is said and done the fact remains that a three-way split within unionism is of benefit to no one except nationalism.

n Alex Kane is the UUP Director of Communications