Cameron has been much too cautious
THURSDAY was a dreadful day for political parties across the United Kingdom. None of them is in a position to claim a moral or political high-ground, for none of them has been given a vote of confidence by the electorate. The Conservatives may have been celebrating, but I'm not sure why; for in a turnout of less than a third they secured only 38 per cent. If David Cameron wants to be a Prime Minister with a government which commands a natural authority, then he is going to have to find a way
As for Gordon Brown! When your political survival depends upon over-promoting the likes of Peter Hain and Peter Mandelson and appointing game-show host Alan Sugar as an advisor, then you really are in trouble. And the only reason that Mandelson is still on board is that none of the contenders for Brown's job wants him on their side.
In every understandable sense of the term Gordon Brown has ceased to be Prime Minister. The mere fact that he still occupies Number Ten cannot disguise the reality that all power, respect, confidence and authority has been removed from him. He's in precisely the same position as James Callaghan was in between 1977 and 1979 and John Major between 1995 and 1997; and the longer he clings to office the more damage he does to his party and to what little is left of his own reputation.
Brown no longer has the support of the public, his own party or of Parliament itself. His downfall is imminent and it seems certain that he will be removed brutally and quickly. I suspect that some senior figures within Labour are coming round to the idea of a snap general election, hoping that turnout won't be much of an improvement on Thursday and that Cameron's majority can be contained to around 50. Had Thursday been a general election then the Conservatives would have been returned with a majority of about 30.
No one should underestimate the damage done to all of the political parties by the expenses scandal. A few months ago Cameron would have been breezing into office on the back of a landslide. That is no longer a certainty. Yes, he will still win, but he will win with a much smaller majority and with much less support from the electorate. That, in my view, is a bad result for both democracy and strong government.
I think Cameron has been much too cautious in his response to the events and revelations of the last few weeks. He has nothing to lose and very much to gain by proving to the public that he will tolerate nothing that looks like even the sniff of wrong-doing. The real test of a leader is how he deals with his own party and in Cameron's case he needs to show a willingness to let a few more heads roll. The electorate is not in the mood for gimmicks, sound-bites, woolly words or slaps on the wrist. If Thursday's results proved anything, it was that the gap between the electorate's view of Cameron and Brown isn't all that big.
Here in Northern Ireland turnout was also down and it seems to have been a dreadful result for the DUP and for Jeffrey Donaldson as their Director of Elections. Not only has it failed to top the poll, but it looks as though the combined UUP/TUV vote will be greater than that of the DUP, meaning that the DUP can no longer describe itself as the voice of unionism. That is a very bad result for them and it will raise difficult questions about leadership and strategy – the sort of questions which used to be asked in the UUP a few years ago.
It was a good day for the TUV, albeit probably for the wrong reasons. I accept that the bulk of the TUV vote is a response to what many regard as the DUP’s roll-over in May 2007 and a seemingly very comfortable working relationship with Sinn Fein. But I don’t understand what Jim Allister intends to do with his vote. There’s no going back to the drawing board to re-write the Belfast or St Andrews Agreements, so how does he propose to deal with the Sinn Fein presence in government? That is something he will have to address and answer fairly soon.
It’s too early to say yet what the result means for the UUP-Conservative relationship. But Jim Nicholson does appear to have improved on the UUP’s performance since the 2004 Euro election and also the UUP’s 2007 Assembly result. If that is the case then it has been a good election for the UUP and will be interpreted as a signal for them to continue building political and electoral arrangements with the Conservatives. And that, of course, will force others to consider their own positions.
But the key message to come from this election is the continuing division within unionism. In 2007 there was a very clear two-way division, with the DUP taking about two-thirds. Today there is a three-way division, with the UUP/DUP/TUV in or around about a third each. If that remains the pattern at the general election (which will come before April 2010), and the Assembly and council elections in 2011, then more seats will be lost to nationalism.
I have long argued that there is room for two mainstream pro-Union parties in Northern Ireland. There isn’t room for three of them, though. So the next few months are going to be very interesting indeed within unionist political circles and I wouldn’t be surprised if the DUP lost a few MLAs to both the UUP and TUV in the process. Yet when all is said and done the fact remains that a three-way split within unionism is of benefit to no one except nationalism.
n Alex Kane is the UUP Director of Communications
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Weather for Belfast
Tuesday 14 February 2012
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