Political stalemate - here we go again
SO here we are again: another crisis; another make-or-break date in the diary; threats of court action; threats of withdrawal; begging the IMC for a rescue package or exit strategy; the government unable to meet since June; no decisions able to be taken; talk of collapse, suspension and snap elections.
Is this really what the DUP had in mind when they boasted that we had entered the era of confident unionism and the fairer deal?
Let's be blunt about it. Peter Robinson cannot even call an Executive Committee together until his Sinn Fein co-equal gives him the nod of approval. Much needed debate and policy making on flooding, energy costs, the credit crunch and planning cannot take place until Martin McGuinness agrees to clear the papers sent down from the First Minister's office. As Mr Robinson admits, "no new policy or direction can be given without Executive approval". And to add insult to injury, the threat of collapse came from Sinn Fein's leader in the Dail during the course of a commemoration of old-style republicanism! So much for the DUP trumpets, in May 2007, that "the days of Sinn Fein holding the process and the institutions to ransom are gone".
Nub of the problem
The nub of the current problem is that the DUP and Sinn Fein are still pursuing mutually contradictory agendas; resulting in deadlock between them and gridlock on the Programme for Government. The Paisley/McGuinness double-act was a novelty routine which merely distracted attention from the ongoing, underlying difficulties. Robinson and McGuinness represent an entirely different dynamic, much closer to the battle-a-day high jinx which Robinson predicted last year.
Another difficulty lies buried in the Belfast and St Andrews agreements, neither of which installed the mechanisms required to easily resolve internal crises. The 1998 original had a provision for a full scale review of the machinery of government, but it never ever came to anything. And now we have Mr Robinson acknowledging that "…the system of government operating at Stormont is far from perfect. In the DUP's 2007 manifesto we referred to it as representing a fair deal but not a final destination". That, of course, begs the question of what Mr Robinson regards as the final destination and how he hopes to get there.
Quiet acceptance
But at least he does seem to be accepting, albeit very quietly, that mutual veto, mutual contempt, deadlock, gridlock, non-meetings and congenital instability cannot, by any definition, be regarded as either fair or final. Indeed, he even justified the need for continuing with double, triple and even quadruple mandates by arguing that "people within the party recognise that, until the stability of the Assembly is more firmly established on a longer-term basis, there will be reluctance among people who are Westminster MPs to give up their seats to work exclusively in the Assembly". Are we to conclude, therefore, that the ending of multiple mandates will be the DUP's recognition that the Assembly is secure? Or is it an admission that they don't have enough big hitters to secure the Westminster seats?
Dissidents
Sinn Fein also needs to sort itself out. The irony is that it is Adams, McGuinness et al who are the real dissident republicans, because they are the ones who have reached an accommodation with unionists and the British Government. They are the ones who have abandoned the abstentionist policy. They are the ones who have legitimised partition.
They now need something to prove that the political path was worth taking. At this very moment they are probably briefing the British and Irish prime ministers that the activity of the so-called "dissident republicans" is a direct consequence of DUP intransigence. How, they will ask, can the army council stand down and the IRA fully dismantle, while there is another organisation prepared to lift and carry their torch? And the prime ministers, along with the IMC, will be trying to persuade the DUP to give a little more. But if the DUP gives a little more (and, let's be honest, they have already given quite a lot – including the fact that they can't govern without Sinn Fein) it strengthens Jim Allister's hand, rattles their core vote and allows the UUP a moment of schadenfreude.
Who-blinks-first
So we are back again in who-blinks-first territory. I don't think that either party wants an election at this stage, if only because it would be the clearest possible evidence that their carve-up had failed. But equally, it's going to be enormously difficult for either of them to back down, if it appears to be to the advantage of the other. And while it may still be possible to get some sort of fudge on the devolution of policing and criminal justice, there remains a mountain of other issues with the potential to either crash the process or grind it to a standstill again. All good reasons, I would contend, for getting the institutional mechanics sorted out once and for all.
Happily enough, I have no doubt that yet another inter-party, inter-government summit is in the offing. So perhaps, this time, we could finally have the debate about a formal and funded opposition; real accountability (and no, it isn't the same thing as mutual veto); a costed and prioritised approach to the Programme for Government (rather than just a kitchen sink crammed with individual pet projects); powerful, effective Assembly committees; an end to the mass of utterly pointless debates which clog up the system; and some enforceable rules on how MLAs conduct themselves during Assembly business (the present level of debate and questioning is mostly deplorable and often consists of little more than point-scoring). In essence, all of the measures that this column has been arguing for since 1999 – hopefully leading to full democracy rather than continuing stranglehold.
Economic downturn
Meanwhile, patience on the ground is wearing thin. Increasing numbers of people are facing the consequences and impact of the economic downturn. If devolution is to make a difference then the DUP and Sinn Fein need to start thinking about Northern Ireland as a whole, rather than simply their own self-serving perspectives.
Robinson and McGuinness have said that they can and will work together for a better Northern Ireland. How about some evidence?
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Weather for Belfast
Thursday 24 May 2012
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