SF first minister would be hugely damaging
TWO things have struck me about the Union 2021 series: the sheer nature and scale of the debate about unionist unity; and the remarkably sanguine view of many of the contributors to the prospect of a Sinn Fein first minister.
Most of the unionists who endorsed the Belfast Agreement in the 1998 referendum were fully aware of the reality that Sinn Fein would almost certainly be represented in any new government. But they voted yes because they believed that the wording of the Agreement prevented the possibility of a Sinn Fein first minister for so long as the total number of unionist MLAs was greater than the total number of nationalist/republican MLAs. And since demography and electoral patterns suggested that such an outcome was extremely likely, it seemed a safe enough bet to tick the yes box.
What they didn't anticipate was the fact that the DUP and Sinn Fein would change the rules of the game at St Andrews, meaning that it would be the largest party in the Assembly (rather than the largest party from within the largest community bloc of MLAs) which would have first choice for the first minister's job. The prospect of a Sinn Fein first minister has shifted from extremely unlikely to very possible.
Does it matter? A number of contributors to the Union 2021 series – including Ian Paisley – have said that such an outcome would be the consequence of a democratic choice and as such should be respected and accommodated. Yet we know that this isn't about democracy, for we know that the DUP and Sinn Fein decided at St Andrews to fundamentally and unilaterally undermine and rewrite an Agreement which had been endorsed by over 70 per cent of voters on both sides of the border. And if it really was about simple democracy then why has the DUP become fixated with unionist unity, insisting that unity is the best way of preventing a Sinn Fein first minister? So yes, it does matter and matters most to one of the parties which negotiated the change! So much so, in fact, that it is asking the UUP to conspire with it to thwart a particular 'democratic' outcome.
Also, whatever some commentators may think, there is a very clear difference between the first minister and the deputy first minister. As David Trimble pointed out, "the first minister has precedence and is the one to give leadership to the community as a whole". Also, can you even begin to image the propaganda exercise Sinn Fein would conduct if Martin McGuinness (although I still think it would be Gerry Adams) became first minister? Can you imagine the headlines across the world if an IRA mouthpiece became first minister? It would very quickly be translated into 'huge victory for republicanism'.
Worse still, can you imagine the psychological damage to unionism if an IRA/republican was first minister against a background in which unionists still made up the greater number of MLAs and voters: and that man was using his office to champion unity and describing his time as first minister as just another one of the staging posts to a united Ireland? Indeed, republicanism and nationalism is more likely to agree a common front around the propaganda opportunities afforded by a Sinn Fein first minister, than in response to the prospect of unionist unity candidates at the next Assembly election.
History isn't just defined by eras, epochs, war and revolution: it is also defined by 'moments' and 'tipping points' – after which things would never, could never, be the same again. I believe that a Sinn Fein first minister – as a consequence of the changes made at St Andrews – would have a hugely damaging impact on the political structures and on the so-called peace process. And it would have that impact precisely because all of the available evidence indicates that Sinn Fein would exploit the title of first minister for purely selfish means. Let's face it, that's why they wanted the change to the rules in the first place!
Can the rules be re-changed? Well, Tony Blair pushed through the legislation in 2006 even though it didn't have all-party support and represented the upending of a key part of the original Agreement. But Cameron won't follow suit: UCUNF has fallen apart, he doesn't need DUP votes to sustain his government, he owes the UUP no favours and Owen Paterson is so busy setting out conditions under which he would talk to dissident republicans that's he not going to take on Sinn Fein.
The DUP doesn't want any legislative change, for that would rob them of what they hope will continue to be the trump card which will allow them to run every Assembly election as a headcount and, in the process, finish off the UUP once and for all. Tom Elliott has allowed Fred Cobain to throw down an ultimatum to the Conservatives – knowing full well that the Conservatives' inevitable rejection makes it easier for the UUP and DUP to conclude an electoral pact. Basil McCrea is willing to accept a Sinn Fein first minister on the grounds that 'it's democracy' (which it clearly isn't); and also because he knows that it's very unlikely that either he or Tom will be the ones who would have to agree to serve as deputy in those circumstances.
As it now stands we seem to have four options: stopping Sinn Fein by a process of unionist unity (which will damage and maybe destroy the UUP); legislation to revert to the position set out in the original Agreement (which seems unlikely); a Sinn Fein first minister (which could do huge damage to the whole process); or an election outcome similar to what we have now (in which mutual veto and stalemate remain the order of the day). Now there's a conversation for unionists to have over a wet weekend!
And talking of Tom and Basil: at the outset of the leadership contest a few weeks ago I said that it was Tom's to lose, since he was starting in a very strong position. But judging from what people are telling me, it is beginning to look like Tom could lose. I said in a later interview that it would be a 'battle between old and new, with the outcome determined by which candidate looked most likely to deliver the something different'. So far, there has been nothing different from Tom or his team.
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Tuesday 14 February 2012
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