The prize for a united unionist approach is enormous
I DON'T think that any of us who went to Hatfield House for talks last weekend were in any way surprised at the attention which the event attracted, when it became public knowledge, as it could prove to be historic.
The setting itself of course has its own significance. Hatfield House has been the home of the Salisbury family for centuries and the shape of British history has often been determined by conversations and agreements made within its walls.
The rooms of the house itself are covered with original portraits of kings, queens, lords and politicians who have steered the ship of state through the centuries. The Salisbury family have also had a close association with the history of Ireland. Indeed, Hatfield is home to original letters dating back to the early 1600s outlining the plans for what became known as the Plantation of Ulster and Lord Cranbourne himself has been a friend of unionism for a long time. He was one of 28 members of the House of Commons who voted against the Anglo-Irish Agreement in 1985, and gave up government office in protest against it. So it was fitting that such a location should be used for discussions which, amongst other things, included how unionists could cooperate in order to strengthen the Union.
I was pleased at the public reaction to what has been reported about the discussions. Hardly anyone mentioned the ongoing wrangle about the devolution of policing and justice, but I had numerous people stop me and ask if there really was a chance that unionists might come together and work more closely. I perceive that within the unionist community at least there is a growing desire to see inter-unionist division brought to an end and I believe that it is a prize worth pursuing.
Of course there will be many obstacles. There have been deep divisions on policy and strategy in the past and each party, in seeking to persuade the electorate of the validity of the position which it has adopted, has engaged in harsh argument and accusations. No one party has been guiltless in this political warfare and it has left a legacy which makes cooperation difficult for some.
There is also the pride which members of each party have in the history and achievements of their organisation, and that party affiliation will make it difficult for some to see beyond their history to the benefits of cooperation in the future.
For those who hold elected position they will of course want to know the implications of any new structure and local cooperation in elections for their own position.
Finally, in bringing together any organisations there will always be legal difficulties with property ownership etc.
Despite the problems which would need to be overcome, the prize to be gained is enormous. As the SDLP continues its decline, the non-unionist vote in Northern Ireland has coalesced around Sinn Fein, and the prospect of their becoming the biggest party in the Province is now very real. The fragmented unionist vote only brings that prospect nearer. Some people may say: “So what? Surely all that matters is that the combined unionist vote is larger than the Sinn Fein vote.” However this ignores the political and psychological impact that would result from having a Sinn Fein First Minister and having Sinn Fein spokesmen tramping around the world declaring that they are the biggest party in Northern Ireland. The easiest way to counter that situation is to have the unionist vote in Northern Ireland combined under one political umbrella.
The second benefit would be to increase the morale of the unionist population, many of whom tell me that they do not vote because they are angry about inter unionist squabbling. Frankly I have never understood the logic of this position but if it really is an impediment then there is a way of dealing with it.
Even if a more united unionist front did not drag the non-voters out to the polls, any form of cooperation which reduced tension between unionist parties would also encourage a greater transfer of votes in PR elections for councils and the Assembly. This, in itself, would increase unionist representation since in many cases it could mean the difference between a unionist taking the last seat instead of a non-unionist. Given that, in some cases, up to 50 per cent of unionist votes do not transfer to another unionist, the impact of greater transfers should not be underestimated. In the context of Westminster, a united approach to fighting these seats would most definitely mean that Sinn Fein and SDLP seats would be gained for unionism. A block of 12 or 13 unionist seats could give us considerable bargaining power especially in the context of a hung Parliament or tight votes which sometimes occur even when the government has a more comfortable majority.
Outside the political organisations which represent the spectrum of unionist opinion in Northern Ireland, there is considerable evidence of shared unionist values, aspirations, and objectives. Events have conspired to provoke discussion on how these might be reflected in the political representation which the unionist population has at present. It is noticeable that the current talks are not being driven by any one party, nor did they originate as the idea of any one party. That is probably the strength of the present discussions. They are not about takeovers, or some short-term party political advantage - the objective is a seismic change in the shape of unionist politics.
Over 400 years ago the plans hatched at Hatfield house for the Plantation of Ulster brought immense economic and political benefits to this part of Ireland. If the discussions held there last weekend eventually result in producing a long-term change in unionist politics, then once again Northern Ireland and the Union will benefit immensely from its associations with that place and its family.
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Thursday 24 May 2012
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