Time for UUP and SDLP to consider going into opposition
DR Alasdair McDonnell, of the SDLP, picked the right time, but possibly the wrong issue, when he raised the spectre of pulling out of government in a BBC interview last weekend.
McDonnell is currently second favourite in a two-horse race to be the next leader of the SDLP, but he is a punchy sort of guy and is keen to be noticed. That may be why he used his campaign interview with Inside Politics to suggest that the SDLP might pull out of the Executive if it doesn't get the justice ministry.
His argument is based on both reason and tribalism. Under the d'Hondt mathematical formula by which ministries were allocated, the SDLP would have been entitled to the next post. Now they are hitting out at Sinn Fein for letting nationalism down by agreeing a special arrangement under which d'Hondt will not apply, and the post will almost certainly go to David Ford of Alliance.
The problem is that policing and justice is judged by the DUP to be so sensitive that it has to go to a cross community vote and the only party likely to win that is Alliance. So if jstice is ever devolved, and that's a big if, Ford is likely to get the ministry.
That suits Sinn Fein, who want to crush the SDLP, and it also suits the DUP, who will have one nationalist minister less. It's galling for the SDLP to miss out on buggin's turn and they have a right to complain but, at least for this executive, there is no other way to get policing and justice devolved. The 'Sinn Fein sold out nationalism' line is a good one for the Westminster elections next year and the Assembly poll in 2011 but it isn't really a resigning issue now.
It would look too self-serving to pull out of government over the share out of the spoils of office at a time when voters are facing so many problems. It would contribute to the widespread cynicism about politicians and the feeling that they are only in it for what they can get.
That being said, we are getting near the time when the smaller parties, the UUP as well as the SDLP, could start raising the threat of resigning and going into opposition. It would have been foolish to have done it early in the Assembly's life, as some suggested, because it would have left the impression that only the big parties are fit to govern.
Few would have that impression now. Pulling out in the early days of power sharing could have looked like shirking responsibility for decision making. On the other hand, sticking around too long when things are going badly and you are being ignored could look like clinging to office for the sake of it.
The giveaway budget which launched the Assembly has left a black hole in government finances. The Sinn Fein/DUP axis has, up to now, shown itself to be too slow and cumbersome to adapt to the new situation. Instead, they have dug their heels in at every turn and we see the results in the debacle over the Maze stadium and the five months in which there were no Executive meetings. The latest disappointment is the threatened collapse of local government reform in a sectarian squabble over a few council boundaries.
In the streets, people aren't debating the devolution of policing and justice. They are talking about rising crime, unemployment and the perceived gravy train up at Stormont. “Muppets” and “wasters” are the sort of epithets which we hear applied to our political masters every day.
In any case, we are now approaching the period when junior partners in any coalition anywhere in the world start to flex their muscles so as not to look like bit part players. Generally speaking, the best time to pull out is during the year before an election. The next assembly poll is scheduled for 2011 but there is an off chance that the executive will collapse before that. The time for the UUP and SDLP to start making a noise is now.
The DUP would hate to be stuck in government with Sinn Fein on their own. Even the threat of that is a powerful lever.
Drawing up a list of issues which concern people on the ground, promoting a way forward and raising the spectre of going into opposition if their concerns weren’t met would put the UUP and SDLP back in the big picture. Strutting out in a huff because someone else got a ministry wouldn’t.
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Thursday 24 May 2012
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