Unionist confidence must increase to retain Assembly
WHAT do we mean when we talk about 'unionist confidence'? It's a term which has been bandied about since the inter-party Talks Process began in the autumn of 1997 and it was a favourite DUP mantra until quite recently, when it joined a wider list including 'public' and 'community' confidence. Anyway, it seems to me that 'unionist confidence' embraces at least five aspects - although feel free to add your own.
The most important of the five is the retention of the constitutional status quo. Over the past 40-odd years (albeit with some elements slower than others) unionists have accepted power-sharing, the 'Irish dimension' and a sweeping array of north-south political arrangements. But at the heart of that acceptance was the concrete of the constitutional guarantee: namely, that Northern Ireland remains part of the United Kingdom for so long as a majority wishes it.
What has disturbed many unionists (and I'm one of them, by the way) is that successive governments have tended to push and cajole unionism as though that constitutional guarantee didn't really mean anything at all; or, worse still, was regarded as something flexible rather than solid.
Our identity (the second aspect of confidence), both as unionists and as citizens of the United Kingdom, is something that matters to us. That's why we worry when every sign, symbol, touchstone and benchmark of that identity seems to be under constant assault from republicanism/nationalism. That's why I express my concerns about a 'shared future' strategy which waters us down from red, white and blue into turquoise. That's why I get angry when republicans, governments and some self-styled unionists insist that unionism and republicanism should be regarded and treated as equals; irrespective of the fact that a very clear majority of the population here is unionist and wishes their pro-Union outlook to be safeguarded and promoted.
Ongoing armed and active republicanism (the third aspect) remains a concern for us. The Provisional IRA says it is on ceasefire and committed to peace, but it has been replaced by dissident groups determined to carry on the struggle. Which is, as some of you may remember, precisely what happened in 1969 when the IRA committed itself to political activity and was replaced by the Provisionals who, at the time, were described as 'too small, scattered and inexperienced' to be a major threat to security!
The IMC reported that "the overall level of dissident activity was markedly higher than we have seen since we first met in 2003. The seriousness, range and tempo of their activities all changed for the worse… and there are indications that former republican terrorists have provided services… which, even if occasional, can significantly add to the threat."
Against this background, the Chief Constable wants to remove the full-time reserve, shift around inexperienced officers, close stations and restrict the hours in others. Since history, in terms of republican terrorism, has a way of repeating itself here, I'm not exactly brimming with confidence about the planned response to what is happening at ground zero level.
On a wider scale, unionists would have concerns about the effectiveness of law and order in general (the fourth aspect). A leaked internal report confirmed that the PSNI was not, in fact, doing the job required of them. A 9-5 culture was developing and spreading - and for all the claims about the importance of community policing, the general feeling was that because response was too slow and the police presence almost non-existent, it wasn’t even worth reporting some matters to them.
Does any unionist really believe that the dissident threat and the PSNI’s ongoing internal difficulties represent an ideal climate for devolving policing and justice powers? If so, stand up and make your case. If you think that David Ford is the answer to the problem then I would, genuinely, love to know your reasoning.
The final aspect of confidence: the price for having Sinn Fein in government, the RUC disbanded, terrorists freed etc, was supposed to have been local accountability and a form of devolution which made a difference for the better for everyone in Northern Ireland. That hasn’t happened; and it looks as though it may never happen. Over the next few weeks, for example, we are seeing Protestant tests for Protestant pupils, and Catholic tests for Catholic pupils, forced upon us by a minister who claims to believe in uniting both traditions. And there is nothing which can be done to either stop or remove her.
In a letter to this newspaper on Saturday, Jim Allister responded to some questions I had raised in a previous column. Thank you for the courtesy and honesty, Jim. You make three points in particular with which I agree: “The only route into government is through the persuasion of other parties to agree a programme with them”; “If Sinn Fein are only democrats so long as they are in government, then they are not democrats at all”; “When the present unworkable edifice inevitably collapses it need not mean a reversion to direct rule.”
Actually, I suspect that a majority of the pro-Union community would agree with those points - which means that there is both an opportunity and a challenge for the next Conservative government; namely, to introduce the necessary legislation to bring full-blooded, unambiguous democracy to the Assembly.
David Cameron says he wants to be Prime Minister of the entire United Kingdom, so let him also be Prime Minister of a United Kingdom with equality of democracy, accountability and responsibility in each of the four countries. That, of course, will mean a willingness to face down Sinn Fein, but it’s upon that perceived willingness that he and the Conservatives will be judged anyway.
Yes, others can talk about the need for change in the mechanics of the Assembly, but Cameron may, in a matter of months, be in a position to deliver that change. So some pre-election steers on how he would bolster and promote good, accountable, fully democratic government here, would play well in pro-Union circles.
One thing is certain, though; I’m not detecting much confidence within unionism, let alone much enthusiasm for what passes for devolved government. If those issues aren’t addressed and resolved, then I wouldn’t put much money on having an Assembly here in 2011.
Alex Kane is the UUP’s director of communications.
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Thursday 24 May 2012
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