An easy decision for Paisley
Whatever we may hear of the rumour and counter-rumour surrounding Friday's meeting of Free Presbyterian elders and ministers,
there was a degree of inevitability about Ian Paisley's decision to stand down as moderator. On April 18th he said, in reference to his role as First Minister: "I have no intention of retiring because I believe that Ulster needs me. I believe they need the leadership that I can give them."
He knows only too well that the DUP isn't yet comfortable enough, or confident enough, to survive without him. They need him in place to get them over a few more hurdles in the settling-in process with Sinn Fein. He really does believe, and has said so in the past, that he has been raised by God to save Northern Ireland; and I suspect that he always knew that the day would come when there would be a conflict between his personal view and the narrower, less party political view of the Free Presbyterian Church.
On Friday evening he had to resolve that conflict and choose between his role as moderator and his role as First Minister. He chose the latter. I can't imagine that it was a particularly difficult calculation for him. He has, by and large, kept the party together, avoided a potential schism within the church and ensured that the Agreement has been safeguarded.
He knew that the Free Presbyterian Church, by itself, was never going to be strong enough to deliver, let alone secure a political settlement. He has overseen huge changes within the DUP's strategy and voter base in the last decade and knows that the narrow gate is no longer an option if the party wants to remain top dog in the Assembly and Executive. He hasn't, as some of his internal and external opponents would have us believe, abandoned his past for a mere "mess of potage"; he has, instead, remained true to his ultimate conviction that he, and he alone, can save the day. Or, putting it another way, since he has now concluded that Ulster needs his leadership more than the Free Presbyterian Church needs it, why risk an electoral showdown with his clergy when they were willing to give him an escape route?
Some former colleagues, in particular Jim Allister (who, I understand, will be launching his new party next week), will have allowed themselves to become over-excited by Friday night's events and will sniff opportunities from what they hope is wreckage. Some in the UUP may also believe that a DUP implosion is on the way, heralding an easier than expected electoral recovery for them.
It isn't likely to pan out like that. The Free Presbyterian Church is really quite small in physical and electoral terms and even if every single member abandoned Ian Paisley it wouldn't necessarily do huge damage. And, unlike David Trimble, Paisley isn't personally loathed by huge swathes of his political or religious flock. Ironically enough, some of those Free Presbyterians may actually find it easier to continue voting for him now that the conflict of interests between moderator and First Minister has been resolved.
Let's not forget, either, that there are some unionists who have never been comfortable with the formal link between Paisley and Free Presbyterianism and, consequently, never felt able to vote for him. But now that he appears to have put some distance between himself and the church, and done it for the sake of shoring up an internal settlement, those unionists may be prepared to give him the electoral benefit of the doubt.
As ever, it all comes down to a simple fact; there is no credible alternative to the present political arrangements. There is no significant vote within the we-haven't-gone-away-you-know remnant of anti-Agreement unionism capable of toppling and reversing the DUP/UUP acceptance of power-sharing with Sinn Fein. There is no political figure among the refusniks who can pose a serious electoral challenge to what is now the political status quo in Northern Ireland.
Yes, it may well be the case that Ian Paisley's reputation has been damaged amongst the "fundamentalists" within his Church and on the 1690 fringes of the DUP. And yes, the UUP can have some justified sport in accusing him of seemingly abandoning all of his previous stances. But, putting it bluntly, so what? They can't unpick the Agreement or knock over the Executive. They can't remove Sinn Fein from the equation or attempt to reheat the Sunningdale package, And from the UUP's perspective, it won't be in a position to take advantage of any DUP discomfort until it gets its review signed off and re-launches itself as a serious player again.
The Free Presbyterian Church remains a vital component of Ian Paisley's life, but he, personally, has expanded way beyond its confines and limitations. From the moment the DUP eclipsed the UUP in November 2003 and embarked upon the negotiating process which culminated in the deal of May 8, 2007, it was inevitable that Paisley would sacrifice his role as moderator rather than his role as First Minister.
I wrote a piece about him at the end of 2003 in which I said that the price for becoming the lead voice of unionism would involve a struggle between the competing claims of faith, party, office, country, consistency and self. His opponents will now claim that he has chosen office over everything else. His supporters will counter that he has chosen country. I don't honestly know. He is exactly where I predicted he would be; and there because he had no choice but to be there, finishing off the job that David Trimble began. But deep down, deep, deep, deep down, I'm not sure that Ian Paisley is personally, politically or psychologically happy to be there.
He probably believes that he has saved Northern Ireland from what he regarded as the wimpishness of the UUP and the dreaded Plan B. The problem, of course, is that the Northern Ireland he now leads is, in political terms, the complete opposite of the Northern Ireland he has always claimed to be fighting for. Only he can truly know if the journey from snowballs outside Stormont, to the First Minister's office inside, has been worth it. He seems to be getting away with it at the moment, but history, I suspect, will be a much more severe judge.
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Weather for Belfast
Tuesday 29 May 2012
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