In the end Paisley failed to deliver on promises
It has been inevitable for some time that Dr Paisley was being shuffled off into a reluctant early retirement. The knock-on effect of the Chuckle Brothers imagery did incalculable damage to him personally – making an almost daily mockery of a 50-year career in which he had accused successive UUP leaders of Lundyism and of successive DUP manifesto pledges to "smash" Sinn Fein/IRA.
In the end though, he gave his personal imprimatur to an Agreement that had been negotiated and implemented by the UUP and was prepared to shore it up by accepting an IRA terrorist as his Deputy First Minister.
For many of his grassroots, too many perhaps, it was an unacceptable conclusion to his political career. The success of Jim Allister's TUV at the Dromore by-election was a very clear signal that the Paisley electoral magic was rubbing off.
He wasn't helped either by the controversy which has surrounded his son since last September. His whole political career has been built upon a "you can trust me" mantra and he took great pride in the Paisley brand. He has always been one of the most astute political operators in local politics, with an ear which has been well-tuned to the moods of public opinion.
He knew that the whiff of scandal surrounding his son – whom he clearly adores – was damaging the Paisley reputation and the Paisley brand. And when Jnr was forced out of office a couple of weeks ago (the first time that the DUP hierarchy had stood up to their leader and bent him to their will) it was finally obvious that the Doc had lost control of the party he had founded almost 40 years ago.
A few months earlier, he had also lost control of the Free Presbyterian Church he had founded in the 1950s. There, too, it was a case of former star-struck admirers reassessing their opinions and finding it difficult – in some cases impossible – to reconcile the speeches and opinions of Dr Paisley before and after May 2007. And there is one simple rule of political life – when you begin to lose the support of those who have been with you from the beginning of your career, your career is probably over.
Paisley also made one crucial tactical mistake last May, when he announced that he intended to remain as First Minister for the lifetime of the Assembly.
That came as a huge shock to Peter Robinson, his deputy for almost 30 years, who suddenly realised that his prospects of taking the top posts were withering on the vine. Robinson is almost 60 years old, the wrong age for a party leader who wants to convince the electorate that his party is a relevant vehicle for the new politics of the new Northern Ireland.
What of the Paisley legacy? It cannot be denied that he kept the Belfast Agreement on the road by putting his personal stamp of authority on the process. To that extent he is responsible for the sense of stability we now enjoy. But sharing power with Martin McGuinness and giving Sinn Fein a veto over almost every single aspect of the Budget and Programme for Government is hardly what he could have intended as his ultimate goal when he snowballed Taoiseach Sean Lemass's car in 1965.
From the "O'Neill Must Go" campaign in the 1960s, right the way through to the "sackcloth and ashes...and over my dead body" approach to Sinn Fein in 2006, he remained a seemingly congenital opponent of liberal unionism and cross-community politics. He laid into successive prime ministers and secretaries of state, and, until quite recently, refused to talk to representatives of the Irish government.
Yet his resignation has resulted in praise being heaped upon him by former prime ministers and secretaries of state. Bertie Ahern has become a "valued friend". Martin McGuinness has been positively fulsome, and an assortment of his former opponents are practically knocking each other over to send their thanks and best wishes. All of that would be understandable if he had succeeded in his political ambitions, but it seems remarkably odd for a man who has stood almost every personal opinion he ever held upon its head.
He has already admitted that he was more or less forced into government with Sinn Fein in order to uphold and safeguard "the Ulster and Union we love". Yet he used to pour scorn upon David Trimble when he had claimed that he had to enter negotiations with Sinn Fein because there was "no alternative to negotiations". Dr Paisley also accused Mr Trimble of "scaring the unionist people with talk of a Plan B", but then went on to justify his own deal with Sinn Fein last May when he mentioned his own fear of a Plan B.
A political career can only be properly judged by comparing the starting point with the finishing point. In Paisley's case there is a chasm of Grand Canyon proportions between the two.
In the end he failed to deliver the alternative he had promised. He failed to smash or sideline Sinn Fein. He failed to use his massive mandate in March 2007 to tear up and replace the Belfast Agreement. He became de facto Prime Minister of Northern Ireland – but the price he paid was a huge blow to his personal reputation and the loss of support of those who had been closest to him over the years.
He leaves a party which is not as united as it likes to think and which may begin to unravel at the seams over the next couple of years. Peter Robinson may succeed in his decades-long ambition to become leader, but he will have a very difficult task ahead of him.
My own suspicion is that Robinson will look to rapprochement with the UUP and will be prepared to let the fundamentalists and dinosaurs (whom he hopes are a smallish majority) to gather around Jim Allister. If nothing else, Paisley's departure will change the whole dynamics of unionist politics.
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Tuesday 29 May 2012
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