repercussions on many of us a very long way away. In a Pakistan struggling to establish democracy, nothing could more acutely reflect the sheer antithesis of democracy than the murder of a political leader at an election campaign rally.


Pakistan's 60-year history is characterised by disaster and strife. The brutal end to Bhutto's tragedy-ridden life has led in its immediate aftermath to rioting, multiple deaths and attacks on police and government buildings. It is difficult to see how an election could proceed smoothly in such a climate.


However, failure to hold the election will cause a vacuum and increase uncertainty. Re-imposition of emergency rule by President Musharraf appears likely.


Suspicion for the murder has fallen on Islamist militants who vowed to kill Bhutto but there is also the possibility of involvement from fundamentalist sympathisers within the military and intelligence services. Rawalpindi is a garrison town and home to Pakistan's military. Bhutto and her supporters had complained not enough was being done to protect her. As well as who may have been responsible, there is also confusion, uncertainty and differing accounts about the exact cause of her death.


This is potentially the most volatile period in Pakistan since the war that led to the secession of East Pakistan, now Bangladesh, in 1971. The other main opposition leader, Nawaz Sharif, had come under fire from gunmen hours before Bhutto's assassination. There has been a rapid increase in Islamist violence over the past year and these militants are beginning to acquire a political foothold.


Many question Musharraf's ability to reign in the Islamists. Nearly 1,000 Pakistani soldiers have died fighting Islamic insurgents over the past year. Many of the others are demonstrating little resolve against the militants. They are sympathetic to them and frequently surrender rather than fight.


The instability of a nuclear-armed country with maybe up to 100 warheads creates headaches for many a long way from Pakistan. Bhutto's death is a major blow to US attempts to promote democracy in the region. They had been involved in efforts to secure a power-sharing administration comprising both Musharraf and Bhutto. She was regarded as an important ally of the West.


Bhutto's father Zulfikar Ali Bhutto was also a former Prime Minister, deposed by a military dictator in 1977 and hanged two years later. Her two brothers were subsequently killed in murky circumstances. Indeed she and her husband were accused of involvement in one of their deaths.
The country has a turbulent past and this latest incident could be enough to push a highly volatile security situation over the brink in a largely lawless country armed with nuclear weapons.



No-one should underestimate the importance of Pakistan to al-Qaeda. Their fighters in Afghanistan have unimpeded access to men and material from across the border. The Taliban, ousted from Afghanistan, has established itself in the border regions of Pakistan. Bin Laden and al-Zawahiri are thought to be located in federally-administered tribal areas of North West Pakistan, where the national government has little control. Many of the al-Qaeda attacks in Britain were directed from Pakistan, following preparations in the training camps there.


Pakistan is the sole Islamic state with nuclear weapons. While their Government experts argue security of these weapons is foolproof, the fear is that their command and control network could crumble with sympathisers assisting militant groups to acquire a nuclear capability.
The people of Pakistan must decide which sort of country they want: a Western-style democracy as envisaged by the country's founder, an Islamic republic or a military-ruled junta.

The military and intelligence services have in the past encouraged multiple Mujaheddin groups, with the intention of deploying them in Afghanistan and Kashmir. The military set out to use the jihadis for their own ends but now they have developed agendas of their own.
Pakistan People's Party leader Bhutto was the only candidate offering a secular alternative. Bizarrely, there is actually a secular and moderate majority in the country. Few people want violence or fanaticism. However the political elite have done little for the many millions of poor, and have therefore contributed to an appetite for the populist political platform of the Islamist groups.



The failure of political leaders including Bhutto leaves only a fraction of the 165 million-plus population educated. Less than two per cent of GDP is spent on education. The middle class is largely excluded from politics which remains the preserve of only extremely wealthy landowners, who have then awarded office to their friends and allies.
A sense of foreboding pervades Pakistan following Bhutto's assassination. The new few weeks and months will go a long way to determining the future of that country, the region and possibly much further afield.