ADVICE: Fionnula Earley, chief economist at Nationwide Building Society
Northern Ireland is probably the most vulnerable part of the UK, given the massive increase in house prices that we had last year – nearly 60 per cent.
Now prices in Northern Ireland are falling faster than anywhere else in the UK so you would expect that over-valuation to continue to correct itself to reflect more accurately what's going on in the wider economy.
There are good reasons why Northern Ireland's house prices increased rapidly – a good workforce, infrastructure development, the end of the Troubles and proximity to the south of Ireland, which in parts of Northern Ireland does seem to have had an impact on house price growth.
But some of those things are now evaporating and the south of Ireland is going through a recession.
It is clear that affordability in Northern Ireland has gone far beyond the reach of what you would think would be a stereotypical, young first-time buyer and that is going to be slowing things down quite considerably.
It's a little too early to say, as there is so much uncertainty, but it is possible that the current problems in American banking will make mortgages more difficult to get as the rate of inter-bank borrowing has increased rapidly.
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Weather for Belfast
Wednesday 15 February 2012
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