Province lags behind as UK growth accelerates
NORTHERN Ireland faces further job losses and a near stagnant economy as it continues to trail behind the rest of the UK.
That was the dismal warning yesterday from economists and business groups here as the UK economy made a stunning advance with the strongest growth recorded in the last four years.
The City was buoyed by confirmation of 1.1 per cent growth – almost double expectations – fuelled mainly by the construction and service sectors.
The increase in the gross domestic product (GDP), was the highest since the first quarter of 2006, according to the Office of National Statistics.
But while experts in London warned of difficulties ahead for the recovery, senior figures in Belfast agreed that Northern Ireland had barely left recession.
Construction industry spokesman John Armstrong said the position was hugely frustrating and alarming for those still likely to lose their jobs.
“As far as the industry is concerned we don’t see any growth at the moment. We see things at almost a complete standstill which is a very worrying thing because, in broader terms, if the economy is going to grow here it needs construction activity,” said Mr Armstrong, chief executive with the Construction Employers’ Federation.
“I get it from all quarters, companies saying that if they are not laying off at the moment they will be in the next three to four weeks,” he added.
Calling for decisive action form the government, he said bringing schemes off the drawing board would deliver real and lasting benefits across the province.
“There is no doubt, this industry is not something you can switch on and off like a tap and companies just can’t hold out until October or November until the public sector decides what it’s going to spend here.
“The essence of what we are urging the government to do now is to release some projects that are there and ready to go.
“Good examples would be the police college, Magilligan prison. Why can they not get projects like that out to the market?”
Northern Bank chief economist Angela McGowan said that on a global scale the figures augured well for recovery.
Closer to home, she said there was limited opportunity for growth and nothing to match the UK figure.
“Good UK economic growth also bodes well for the local economy as approximately 40 per cent of local manufacturing exports go to Great Britain.
“A strong recovery would also alleviate public spending pressures further down the line.
“However, Northern Bank’s current forecast for quarter two suggests that the local economy only grew by 0.5 per cent.
“This lower regional growth rate can be attributed to the fact that Northern Ireland has a lower share of exporting companies and is therefore less able to tap into the global recovery.”
Wilfred Mitchell, Northern Ireland policy chairman for the Federation of Small Businesses, said it was important to recognise both the growth and its limitations.
“Research by the FSB shows that business confidence worsened over the second quarter of 2010 – only a net four per cent of small firms believe that their business prospects will improve in the third quarter of the year, down from 16 per cent in March.”
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Weather for Belfast
Tuesday 14 February 2012
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Temperature: 6 C to 8 C
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