Election Diary: Might bigger TV politics audience point to an increased turnout?

The BBC debate, which will be chaired by veteran Noel Thompson in front of a studio audience, will involve the leaders of the five biggest parties – Arlene Foster (DUP), Michelle O’Neill (Sinn Fein), Mike Nesbitt (UUP), Colum Eastwood (SDLP) and Naomi Long (Alliance).

The live BBC debate follows a significant increase in the audience for the pre-recorded UTV debate a fortnight ago, which was watched by 141,000 people (23% of total viewers), with a peak of 162,000 viewers.

That audience was 42% up on the corresponding UTV debate last year – the first of several hints that this election might be connecting with the public more than was the case a year ago.

Other election programmes have seen big audiences.

Last Wednesday’s Nolan Live TV election debate had an average audience of 139,000 (a 43% share); the previous week another pre-election Nolan Live programme attracted an average of 157,000 viewers (42% share).

And the main televised BBC politics programme, The View, last week had an average audience of 98,000 (a 31% share); the previous week it had an audience of 97,000 (a 25% share). It is understood that those figures are significantly up on the corresponding programmes before last year’s election.

And another factor which may point towards turnout being not as grim as some had feared on Thursday is that the preliminary weather forecast is for a largely dry day.

• ‘Election 2017 – The Leaders’ Debate’ goes out tonight at 9pm on BBC One Northern Ireland.

Bookies back DUP

Arlene Foster’s prediction that the election will be “close” between the DUP and Sinn Fein is not accepted by the bookies – although the DUP’s odds have lengthened slightly over recent days.

A week ago at the DUP manifesto launch, Mrs Foster said the election would be “close” and said that unspecified polling suggested it would be “neck and neck between Gerry Adams Sinn Fein and the DUP”.

However, Paddy Power’s odds for the greatest number of seats puts the DUP at 1/5, meaning that the bookie reckons that outcome has an 83% chance of being the biggest party. That is down slightly from an 87% probability a week ago.

Sinn Fein is given scant chance of overtaking the DUP as the biggest party. Paddy Power rates that prospect as having just a 23% chance.

As for Ulster Unionist Steve Aiken’s belief that his party will overtake Sinn Fein, the bookie’s odds are derisive. The UUP’s chance of taking the most Stormont seats is just 4.3%.

A note of caution, however. Paddy Power infamously put Naomi Long at 100/1 to win East Belfast in 2010 – a 0.9% chance. She won.