By-election analysis
Looking for messages in mid-term election results is fraught with danger. Keeping it simple then. The Dromore by-election had quite a high turnout: 39 per cent. Of an eligible vote of 9,688, some 3,793 voted (3,776 votes were valid).
The DUP
Candidate Paul Stewart topped the first preference count with 1,069 votes.
But hit hard by losing 700-plus first count votes to the TUV (slumping from around 50 per cent of the total poll in 2005 to about 28 per cent), the party also failed to take transfers from other parties.
The message: There is a significant, once loyal DUP vote which is deeply unhappy with Sinn Fein power-sharing and/or how it is being presented. The DUP will now need to address that issue because on the evidence of this by-election (for what it is worth) this body of people could seriously damage the party's powerful electoral standing.
The DUP argument: This was a tactical protest vote against the presentation of power-sharing with Sinn Fein; there were local factors involved, such as the removal of British emblems from Banbridge District Council; and devolution will deliver for unionism but the concerns will not be ignored.
The UUP
Candidate Carol Black attracted 912 first preference votes.
As other parties dropped out she transferred well, as expected, from Alliance (adding 182 votes) but especially well from the TUV (377 votes extra) to finish on 1,571.
The message: The UUP vote was actually down in percentage terms, so the win masked remaining underlying problems – however, their tally held up enough for it to take advantage of the transfer system and its broader appeal than the DUP. The result gives the UUP hope and a timely boost, but it should be concerned that at a time when the DUP was caught struggling it still could not take advantage and out-poll its main rival on first preference.
The UUP argument: Rumours of their demise have been exaggerated; the rot has been stopped; and the Ulster Unionists are a party for a broader section of people than the DUP can ever be.
Traditional Unionist Voice
Candidate Keith Harbinson took 739 first preference votes.
This equates to 19.5 per cent of the overall vote and nearly 28 per cent of the total unionist vote. A significant success on a first outing.
The message: The TUV is tapping into a hardcore who still say never to Sinn Fein power-sharing or enforced coalition. These are people who dislike the Ian Paisley and Martin McGuinness photo opportunities. They are yet to be convinced that it may be for the greater good to set aside – if not forget – the IRA's murderous past. And the DUP has a massive job on its hands convincing these once diehard followers that devolution beats Direct Rule.
The TUV argument: Just two months ago it did not even exist and now it has fought – albeit a small election in a unionist heartland – and won a substantial vote and proven there is support for its views out there. It believes it can grow from this base and replicate the poll in other areas.
Alliance Party
Candidate David Griffin took 357 votes.
This was significant because it doubled Alliance's vote in the ward in any previous election.
The message: Alliance came in fourth and suggested that in the new-look Province, with less inclination for people to run to the hardline, there is something for them to build on.
The Alliance argument: With just under 10 per cent of the vote and more first preferences than Sinn Fein, the SDLP and the Green Party, they could take another seat on Banbridge District Council. People will turn to them for alternative to the parties of government.
Sinn Fein
Candidate Paul Gribben – 350 votes.
SDLP
Candidate John Drake – 290 votes.
Green Party
Candidate Helen Corry – 59 votes.
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Thursday 09 February 2012
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