Housing market is still 'fragile'
THE housing market in Northern Ireland remains unpredictable and has been described as "fragile" by the latest University of Ulster survey.
According to the report, covering the second quarter of 2010, there is "erratic and uneven behaviour" with some areas showing an overall increase in values – while prices fell considerably across the north and west of the province.
The average house price across Northern Ireland now stands at 163,459.
That figure represents a 2.9 per cent rise over the same period last year. The survey uses a weighted index to even out fluctuations in the sample, modifying the increase to 2.4 per cent.
But compared to the first three months of the year, the weighted index showed prices declining 2.5 per cent on the first quarter of 2010.
In Belfast, the average house price increased by 13 per cent over the quarter to 185,281.
Worst off were home owners in the Ballymena/Antrim and Fermanagh/South Tyrone areas where prices dipped by almost 20 per cent on average; the north west falling by over 18 per cent; and in Londonderry/Strabane by around 24 per cent.
However, the authors caution against reading too much into any single quarterly movement and say longer term trends are more significant.
Across the province, the UU's overall average house price figure is down 35 per cent from the 2007 boom. Both the Nationwide and Halifax indexes show a larger fall of more than 40 per cent.
The latest UU survey has the average price of a property in Lisburn now standing at 195,836 – second only to North Down at 209,732.
The price of property in the Londonderry/Strabane area is the regional lowest at 119,185 on average.
Overall, properties appear to be more affordable with 61 per cent selling at or below 150,000, although there are considerable differences depending on the type of property.
The Housing Executive's head of research, Joe Frey, said: "The latest analysis confirms our view that the housing market will remain flat for some time to come."
He said that government proposals to restrict Housing Benefit "could have a very detrimental effect on both tenants' ability to afford to live in the private rented sector and landlords' ability to charge viable rents".
Alan Bridle, head of economics at Bank of Ireland, said that public spending cuts "suggest price risks are still to the downside".
"There is now a realism that a recovery to pre-crisis levels will only occur over an extended period of time."
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