Scots debate is changing the Union
ONCE it was the man in the middle of this photograph who was most likely to break up the United Kingdom. But no more.
Government files reveal that during the IRA’s campaign, in which now Deputy First Minister Martin McGuinness played a key role as a senior commander, the Government considered (and rejected) withdrawing from Northern Ireland.
But Mr McGuinness – seen here a year ago after he and First Minister Peter Robinson joined forces with Scottish First Minister Alex Salmond to call for London action on the economy – now has little chance of seeing a united Ireland in his lifetime.
By contrast, the threat which the affable, astute and – some say – ruthless politician on the right of the picture poses to the Union has increased as that of Mr McGuinness has diminished.
Alex Salmond has led his Scottish National Party (SNP) to become the single biggest party in Edinburgh’s devolved administration, which he has renamed ‘The Scottish Government’.
Last year he announced plans for a referendum on Scottish independence from England, Wales and Northern Ireland.
Since then a bitter power struggle, in which the stakes are of historic proportions, has been going on between London and Edinburgh over the exact terms of that referendum, its question, its date – and whether Edinburgh can legally hold such a poll without Westminster’s consent.
The Scottish First Minister announced last month that he plans to hold the referendum in the autumn of 2014, rather than wait for Westminster to legislate to give the Scottish Parliament the power to hold a referendum, something which would give David Cameron some control over how the poll is held.
Mr Salmond also wants to cut the voting age to 16 for the referendum and include a question asking whether, if full independence is rejected, voters would support the maximum devolution of powers from Westminster while remaining British.
Support for independence is currently between 28 and 38 per cent, according to polls – considerably below the SNP’s 45 per cent vote – meaning that a considerable shift will be necessary for Mr Salmond to achieve full independence.
But if he was to achieve his goal there are major implications for the Crown, the Armed Forces, Parliament, sterling and the UK’s place as a world power.
On Wednesday Mr Salmond attempted to rebut the claim by opponents of independence that such a move would be economically disastrous.
He set out an ambitious plan to set aside about a tenth of Scotland’s oil and gas revenue to create a vast fund for future generations of Scots.
The SNP leader said that such a fund could amount to £30 billion within a generation and could be used to build the Scotland of the future.
Wednesday’s announcement, which stole the headlines ahead of Mr Cameron’s visit to Scotland on Thursday, is typical of Mr Salmond.
Positive, forward-looking and simple to understand, it is the sort of announcement which portrays him as an ideas man; brimming with new thinking about how to improve Scotland.
However, under scrutiny Mr Salmond’s proposal appears less straightforward. Removing 10 per cent of the income from oil and gas would require either an equal hike in other taxes or a cut in public services.
In return, Mr Cameron, who has made much of his unionism, said that it would be “deeply, deeply sad” if Scotland were to leave the UK.
On a visit to Edinburgh on Thursday he offered to consider giving the Scottish Parliament more powers if voters reject independence.
However, more powers are already being devolved to Edinburgh – including a Scottish income tax – in the Scotland Bill which is winding its way through Westminster.
But what will be the impact of the Scottish independence debate on Northern Ireland?
In an article for the Royal United Services Institute last year, defence strategist Mark Lynch argued that if Scotland becomes independent it would dangerously stoke nationalism in other parts of the UK to an extent that it would “greatly affect the UK’s security”.
“Most pertinent to the security of the UK is the effect a renewed nationalist spirit would have on the peace process in Northern Ireland,” he said.
“Indeed, Gerry Adams suggested that an independent Scotland would cause ‘seismic shifts’ for the future of the UK, creating lasting concerns about the stability of the region.
“The increasingly violent actions of dissident republican groups in Northern Ireland would be in danger of increasing exponentially in the face of an apparently weakened UK... Renewed violence in Northern Ireland would challenge the ability of the British military and security services to adjust to the new political situation and, importantly, challenge public perception in England and Wales as to the utility of continuing to maintain Northern Ireland as part of the United Kingdom.”
When former Ulster Unionist leader Lord Empey last month gave a similar, if less detailed, warning that Scottish independence could “reignite” the Troubles in Northern Ireland he was castigated by the SNP, who claimed that he was being irresponsible.
Even if it did not lead to violence in Northern Ireland, there would be huge political upheaval in the province if Scotland left the UK.
Northern Ireland’s constitutional future is secure in the medium term because most people here support the status quo and the Belfast Agreement ensures that the people will decide.
It was once claimed by Labour that devolution would “kill nationalism stone dead”. That has clearly not happened and there are some who believe that devolution inevitably pushes the regions towards either independence or a federal type of union.
That is because most local politicians in all the regions – even unionist ones – will tend to want power over as many areas of their region as possible.
The Union has always been evolving and, irrespective of the independence vote, there will be further powers devolved from London to Edinburgh.
That could well be followed by more devolution to Cardiff and Belfast.
But if a tipping point is reached where Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland’s assemblies assume more power than Westminster and take their countries off on divergent paths, the Union will mean something very different to what it is today.
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Weather for Belfast
Tuesday 29 May 2012
Today
Sunny spells
Temperature: 12 C to 21 C
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