'Surprising level of sympathy' for perpetrators
Dissidents have support among a small but significant minority of the nationalist community, writes JON TONGE
One of the mantras of the peace process is that 'dissident' republicans have no support.
To suggest otherwise risks talking up a disparate, seemingly desperate, band of diehards.
It also disturbs the orthodoxy found on my side of the Irish Sea that Northern Ireland lies securely in the box marked 'solved'.
Yet the assumption that dissidents have no support has been precisely that – an assumption, untroubled by actual evidence either way.
Until now, that is.
Tomorrow a conference at Queen's on Electoral Change and Prospects for Northern Ireland will unveil the data from the Economic and Social Research Council's 2010 Northern Ireland election survey.
And the evidence, gathered by MRNI, makes uncomfortable reading.
Asked whether they 'had sympathy for the reasons why some republican groups (such as the Real and Continuity IRAs) continue to use violence', a surprisingly high 8.2 per cent – that's 14 per cent of those identifying as nationalists – said yes.
The groups had no support among unionists, and less than one per cent among respondents who identified neither unionist or nationalist.
Some 12.9 per cent of nationalists (7.8 per cent of the overall survey) claimed to 'strongly like' or 'like' Republican Sinn Fein while 7.5 per cent of nationalists (4.0 per cent of overall survey) strongly liked or liked 32 County Sovereignty Movement, associated with the CIRA and RIRA.
Eleven per cent of overall respondents believed the PSNI to be very similar to the old RUC.
Given the tendency of survey respondents to produce socially acceptable answers, these figures might be seen as disturbing.
The not-so-sneaking regarders are found in the most likely categories: they are predominantly male and young.
Moreover, dissident activity has produced markedly different perceptions of the threat these ultras constitute.
According to PSNI and IMC figures there have been over 300 dissident shootings and more than 400 bombings in the last seven years.
The reaction of a majority (53 per cent) of Protestants in the survey is to view dissidents as a 'major threat', compared to only 17 per cent of Catholics who think likewise.
Overall, only seven per cent of those surveyed dismissed the 'micro-groups' as 'no threat'.
The Provisional IRA fought its 'war' from 1970 until 1981 without a single vote being cast for Sinn Fein.
For those whose 'war' has still not ended, the supposed 'mandate' comes from 1918, not a MRNI survey. Although a mandate from the living continues to elude dissidents, their isolation is perhaps not as utterly comprehensive as might previously have been assumed.
The survey was based on 1,002 completed interviews, weighted according to demographics including age, religion and geography. Go to www.liv.ac.uk/politics/staff-pages/ESRCSurvey/index.htm for more information
l Jon Tonge is Professor of Politics at the University of Liverpool
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