Swine flu cases could reach 113,000 a week
HEALTH chiefs are preparing to deal with around 113,000 cases of swine flu in Northern Ireland in just one week, it was revealed yesterday.
This latest statistic from the Department of Health comes as businesses across the UK brace themselves for absence rates which could spiral to 50 per cent.
GP consultations for flu and flu-like illnesses across the Province have decreased with 18 new laboratory-confirmed cases of the condition last week.
But Health Minister Michael McGimpsey said up to 30 per cent of the population may become ill with flu at some point during the pandemic.
He confirmed: "The updated planning assumptions indicate that in Northern Ireland during the peak of the pandemic, approximately 113,000 people could contract swine flu in one week.
"These assumptions do not yet take account of the impact of the vaccination programme, and are not predictions - they are assumptions that allow us to plan and prepare for the worst, while continuing to hope for the best.
"We now know more about the virus and while in the majority of people it is mild, for some it can be a serious illness. We now know that it isn't a killer but it does kill."
Up to one per cent of people who become ill may require hospitalisation and up to 0.1 per cent may die from the virus.
Medics are working to produce a vaccine in time for this autumn's expected surge in the number of cases.
The total number of confirmed cases in Northern Ireland yesterday was 160 but the number of antiviral prescriptions decreased to 384. There have been 56 swine flu hospitalisations and one death.
Chief medical officer Dr Michael McBride said: "The number of contacts made to GPs during this period for flu-like illness has decreased for the fourth week in a row but remains significantly higher compared to this time in previous years, especially for the 15-44 age group."
The Chartered Institute of Personnel and Development (CIPD) and the Business Continuity Institute (BCI) are advising companies to put in place contingency plans for sick days over the autumn and winter months.
Ben Willmott, senior public policy advisor with CIPD, warned of the need for contingency plans.
"Evidence shows that still only a minority of employers have an adequate contingency plan in place to deal with a flu pandemic, which is extremely worrying considering that staff absence levels could peak for some businesses at levels which will make business as usual extremely difficult. The CIPD and the BCI believe all businesses should plan for a worst case scenario where staff absence rates reach 50 per cent", he said.
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Sunday 12 February 2012
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