Union 2021 shows how wide unity would have to extend
ALTHOUGH it has not always been the case, it makes sense that unionism attracts individuals from a wide range of backgrounds.
The breadth of the pro-Union spectrum has been starkly demonstrated by the 60 essays already published in the News Letter's Union 2021 summer series on the future of Northern Ireland.
But in light of the ongoing discussions about 'unionist unity', what does the series say about the chances of any grand pan-unionist deal?
Among the five questions which contributors to Union 2021 were asked to address were whether they wanted to see unionist unity and, if so, what form that unity should take.
On the former, a surprisingly high proportion of contributors rejected any unionist unity in principle as it would limit electoral choice, even if it were possible to achieve.
On the latter, the series has shed little light on what the now wearisome cliche 'unionist unity' – used liberally by many in the DUP, some in the UUP and senior figures in the Orange Order – might actually be.
Some see the term as reference to a merger of all unionist parties; some confine the merger to just the DUP and UUP; others see it as a UCUNF-style electoral pact with the DUP and UUP jointly agreeing candidates, while others have in mind little more than the development of better manners between unionists.
That lack of clarity is doing nothing to advance the chances of whatever unity might be possible, particularly with the clock ticking ahead of next May's election and many have reacted against the sort of unity which is least likely – a single party – as the meaning of the term is not defined.
The fact that Rodney Connor did not comfortably win in Fermanagh and South Tyrone demonstrates that a cobbled-together pan-unionist deal weeks before an election can be difficult to sell to voters.
Unionism has become such a disparate entity that a single party would almost certainly be impossible, at least for now.
In general, the politicians have been more guarded than the academics, church leaders, business figures, economists and civic leaders who have contributed to Union 2021.
But there have been exceptions. DUP founder Lord Bannside's remarkable broadside against unionist unity in the form of a single party shows that the major unionist party is not as entirely sold on the goal of 'unionist unity' as it would sometimes appear.
And TUV leader Jim Allister's pessimistic view of Northern Ireland's constitutional future was a sharp reminder that he has several tens of thousands of supporters who would somehow have to be made at home within any single unionist party.
On the far right of the unionist spectrum, retired Free Presbyterian minister the Rev Ivan Foster's contribution was littered with Biblical quotations. Politically, he seems to advocate an independent Northern Ireland and makes clear that he will support whichever constitutional arrangement allows for an Old Testament set of laws and defends Protestant Christianity.
In effect, one of the most hardline former DUP MLAs – now seemingly to the right of Jim Allister – was saying that his support for the Union is negotiable.
Liberal unionist blogger Owen Polley described the Rev Foster's contribution as "one of the most formidable piles of old cobblers you'll read anywhere" and many will dismiss his views as unrepresentative.
But his form of unionism need only be shared by a few thousand unionists across Northern Ireland to make them very relevant to the current debate.
If unionist unity was to happen – and if it was to add voters rather than shed them – it would have to somehow encompass the likes of the Rev Foster, alongside the likes of Trevor Ringland, Dawn Purvis and David McNarry.
How would unionists such as the Rev Foster, whose article spoke of "Sodom" and railed against the UK "embracing the aspirations of those regarded deviants" sit alongside unionists such as Jeffrey Dudgeon, the man whose 1980 court challenge saw homosexuality decriminalised in Northern Ireland?
Supporters of unionist unity point out that there are alternative 'unity' arrangements short of a single party.
But supporters of a united unionism have so far given scant detail in response to the Union 2021 question "What would unionist unity look like?"
The most vocal UUP proponent of unity, David McNarry, gave little away by saying: "Unionist unity, coalition or working relationship – call it what you like – is equally an imperative and an asset."
DUP MLA Arlene Foster made clear her support for "unionist unity" but gave no detail of whether that unity was in the form of a single party, DUP-UUP electoral pact or a grouping encompassing every pro-Union voice.
DUP deputy leader Nigel Dodds made a somewhat firmer suggestion in response to the question of what unity would look like: "At the most basic it involves fellow unionists re-engaging with one another to reflect on all that has happened and consider the position of unionism and Northern Ireland. What do we agree upon? What are our differences?"
He added: "A practical example of that would be joint work to improve the position of unionism in our capital city."
That plan for a UUP-DUP deal on Belfast City Council is known to be shared by some senior UUP figures on the council and may be achievable. But could it include the PUP or any TUV representatives who stand in next year's council election?
The Union 2021 series has also demonstrated the rarely-heard support of Catholics, or individuals born in nationalist areas, for Northern Ireland's place within the United Kingdom.
Catholic UUP member Stephen Goss joined several other contributors in calling for deliberate attempts to foster a Northern Irish identity- including an anthem and flag - to which pro-Union Catholics and Protestants could subscribe.
"Lapsed Catholic" journalist and commentator Malachi O'Doherty made clear that he could be persuaded either way on the constitutional question but pointedly stressed that at present he would support the Union: "In short, no one in their right mind would vote for Irish unity today."
But it is not just the vast breadth of unionism which has been thrown up by the series. A surprisingly high percentage of contributors have expressed no opposition to a Sinn Fein first minister, should that be the outcome of a future election.
That seeming apathy could have significant implications for the attempts – led by Jim Allister and Tom Elliott – to convince the government to reverse the St Andrews Act rule changes which open up the possibility of a Sinn Fein first minister.
As Alex Kane wrote in his News Letter column last week: "Two things have struck me about the Union 2021 series: the sheer nature and scale of the debate about unionist unity; and the remarkably sanguine view of many of the contributors to the prospect of a Sinn Fein first minister."
An extraordinary coalition – from Lord Bannside to Sir Ken Bloomfield to Paul Clissold of the UDA-linked UPRG to former PSNI detective superintendent Norman Baxter – have said that unionists would be wrong to walk out of Stormont should a unionist party not emerge on top after an election.
If that really is representative of grassroots unionist opinion – and contributors who have said that stretch to the Presbyterian moderator and Church of Ireland dean of Belfast – it is further evidence of an incredible liberalisation of unionist attitudes towards Sinn Fein.
Even many of those who have not given their support to the idea of a Sinn Fein first minister, such as Nigel Dodds ("I won't have to because I have every confidence in my party and unionism to ensure it will not occur"), have not said that such a scenario would lead to them abandoning Stormont.
That in itself would have been fairly remarkable even two years ago.
In coming weeks the Union 2021 series will conclude with a public debate on the future of unionism.
That will test whether the positive engagement between unionism's disparate factions evident in the Union 2021 series can extend from print to personal contact between rival unionists.
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Tuesday 29 May 2012
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