East Belfast: Exit poll at Elmgrove suggests big DUP vote
The News Letter asked more than 400 voters how they had cast their ballots as they left Elmgrove Primary School, which is a bellweather that tends to reflect how the seat as a whole has voted.
The results were as follows:
DUP 174 votes
Alliance 91 votes
Ulster Unionists 5
(SF 3, SDLP 2, Conservatives 2, Green 2, spoiled vote 3).
A further 158 people would not say how they voted.
While Elmgrove tends to be a little more unionist than average, the scale of Gavin Robinson’s margin would suggest that he will win the seat and indeed increase his majority.
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Hide AdThe Ulster Unionist vote seems to have been badly squeezed, as many pundits expected.
The results have to be treated with caution because they are from only one polling station.
Generally, however, News Letter exit polls here have given a good indication of the overall result in the consituency.
See below previous findings at Elmgrove (with, in brackets, the vote that would have been expected in such a sample if the seat perfectly reflected the seat).
• March 2017 Assembly
DUP 66 (67)
Alliance 60 (56)
PUP 17 (12)
UUP 16 (23)
TUV 7 (4)
Green 6 (6)
SDLP 4
Sinn Fein 2 (5)
Lab 1 Others (5)
Total 179
Won’t say 119
• May 2016 Assembly
DUP 60 (69)
Alliance 59 (54)
Ulster Unionist 23 (21)
Green 14 (11)
PUP 10 (9)
Hutton 10
Others 12 Others (24)
Total 188
Won’t say 99
• May 2015 General
Gavin Robinson DUP 131 (123)
Naomi Long All 102 (107)
Neil Wilson Conservative 10
Ross Brown Green 6
Won’t say 55
• May 2010 General:
Peter Robinson 53
Naomi Long 52
Trevor Ringland (UUP-Tory) 23
David Vance (TUV) 22
Won’t say 42