For better or worse, unionist unity looks a matter of when, not if

Elected representatives and members of unionist parties (many of whom I’ve known for years) have been texting and emailing me to express their concern that, “unionism is in big trouble if we don’t get our act together and stop the public bickering and shredding of votes”.

What is focusing their minds most, of course, is the fact that we’re just four years away from the centenary of the creation of Northern Ireland. But instead of picking out the balloons and bunting and planning the celebrations, they are now forced to work on a strategy to maximise their overall vote; while giving very serious consideration to what the entire United Kingdom could look like in four years time, once we know the cut and impact of our deal to leave the European Union. In other words, unionism – both local and across the UK – faces huge challenges.

One thing is certain, though: there are too many unionist parties and fringe interests here. And since they tend to spend a lot of time attacking, or snapping at the heels of each other, the overall impression is of confusion and division.

Yet, at the Assembly election, 30,095 voters gave their first preferences to the TUV, PUP, Ukip and Conservatives; and I’m pretty sure that every one of those voters – with the exception of Jim Allister’s in North Antrim – did so in the knowledge that their first choice had little or no chance of being elected. So, why did they bother? And would they bother voting at all if those parties didn’t field their own candidates?

Interestingly, at the first Assembly election in 1998, had there been less anti-agreement unionist independents (they won three seats) and had Bob McCartney’s anti-agreement United Kingdom Unionist Party (which won five) cut an electoral pact/collective whip deal with the DUP, then it’s likely that the UUP would have been outpolled by the DUP and ended up with less seats. And that result would have changed the history and dynamics of that crucial period between July 1998 and November 2003. The Assembly would either have collapsed entirely (killing off the Good Friday Agreement as quickly as Sunningdale was demolished in 1974), or the DUP and Sinn Fein would have been forced to cut a deal much earlier.

At that particular moment and in that particular case, a realignment of anti-agreement unionism, combined with an electoral pact/understanding between them, would have produced an entirely different political outcome. We’d seen it happen before – in January 1974 – when anti-Sunningdale unionism combined to destroy Brian Faulkner and topple the Assembly elected in 1973. And that’s why there are elements within the various unionist parties – collectively spooked by losing their overall majority on March 2 – who want to revisit the idea of pacts and collective whipping.

It will appeal, in particular, to Arlene Foster. She has recovered from her chronic, blinkered mishandling of the RHI saga; and Sinn Fein’s triumphalist hoopla about whether they will ‘allow’ her to be first minister again has actually encouraged unionism to rally around her. So a deal that maximises unionist turnout and seats at a future election – and there may yet be one in a few weeks time – will find favour with her.

The DUP is strong enough to give the UUP (and it is with them that a deal would be most effective) a leg-up in some constituencies; and will do so if the outcome pushes unionism into an overall majority in the Assembly. At the same time they could agree to prioritise socio/economic policies that matter to the PUP. There’s probably nothing they could offer Jim Allister (and anyway, the TUV is clearly a one-man band and no threat to the DUP); while Ukip and the local Conservatives, with less than 1% between them, won’t need to be included in any deal.

But will the UUP be interested? Or, putting it more brutally, can the UUP afford not to be interested? While it’s true that they added 16,000 votes to their Assembly tally in 2016, it’s also true that they are just back to where they were in 2007 (when they won 103, 145 votes to the 2017 tally of 103, 314). But in 2007 they were on almost 15%, compared to almost 13% now. In other words, there is no sign of traction and no indication of solid, bankable progress – even against a background of a significant increase in the overall turnout and huge internal problems for the DUP.

There are three crucial questions facing new UUP leader, Robin Swann. Can the UUP survive as a stand alone party; can it reverse almost 20 years of electoral/seat decline; and does it have a specific role, relevance, purpose and direction anymore? And with all that in his mind, will Swann be able to resist internal pressure from elements of his grassroots (really demoralised by the results in 2016 and 2017) and overtures from the DUP and elements in the Orange Order, for an arrangement with the DUP which embraces the Assembly/Westminster/local councils and which could also include agreement on collective whipping on key issues?

I have enormous reservations about unionist unity, mostly because it tends to display the most negative aspects of unionism. And I also think it puts off a significant section of the pro-Union constituency. Nevertheless, it now looks as though the unity project will soon be in full swing.