ANALYSIS: DUP's fortress is no longer impregnable
FOR all Ian Paisley's remarkable physical, emotional and political strength — evidence of which still shows in his voice — he has been forced to bow to his own mortality.
The North Antrim MP has a strength which for decades saw him stand as a bulwark of Ulster Protestantism, trouncing a succession of unionist leaders with whom he politically disagreed.
Yet at almost 84 even Ian Paisley has to recognise that advancing years mean the time is right to let younger individuals carry on the incessant work of politics.
For stretches in the Assembly chamber on Monday, Dr Paisley was visible sitting alone on the DUP's front bench. Although as an octogenarian his great frame is still imposing, as he got up to vote at various junctures, it was remarked upon in the Press room that "the Doc" looked somewhat frail in finding his steps as he walked through the lobbies.
Therefore, the criticism voiced by some yesterday that the North Antrim MP of five decades is "running away" from Jim Allister's challenge seems misplaced.
Even the DUP's ablest opponent, Jim Allister, did not yesterday accuse his one-time leader of running scared of him, recognising that the sitting MP would be almost 90 at the end of the next Parliament.
Politically, North Antrim will arguably be the most fascinating in a series of interesting intra-unionist general election battles across the Province.
Ian Paisley Jnr starts the contest as favourite against Mr Allister, particularly given the manner in which his father has historically romped home in the constituency with a majority of almost 18,000.
But although he has an obvious link to the outgoing MP and shares his reputation for hard graft in the constituency, the party now lacks the valuable benefit of incumbency which gives sitting MPs a headstart on their rivals.
He also faces the electorate amid distrust at ruling politicians across the UK, given expenses and double-jobbing.
Mr Allister is a powerful opponent who for almost a year has been planning his lines of attack for an election he knows is critical for the future of his Traditional Unionist Voice.
He will use every trick in the DUP book, with which he is intimately acquainted, to try to out-fight an opponent who has faced controversy over his expensive publicly-funded Ballymena office, his decision through the Policing Board to send a PSNI officer to Libya and his lobbying for developer Seymour Sweeney.
Ulster Unionist tallies from the European election seen by the News Letter point to Mr Allister topping the North Antrim poll last June, taking 30 per cent of the vote with DUP candidate Diane Dodds on 24 per cent and Conservative and Unionist Jim Nicholson on 21.9 per cent.
The DUP dispute those figures, but the party must be anxious to know which parts of the Province most helped Mr Allister — who is from North Antrim — come to within 22,000 votes of the DUP.
And there is unquestionably a personal Paisley vote which Diane Dodds would not necessarily have received, meaning that Mr Paisley Jnr would likely fare better that the DUP's MEP.
Also, Ulster Unionists in North Antrim may vote tactically for Mr Allister in an attempt to keep out the son of the man who unseated them in 1970 and tormented a succession of UUP leaders.
There are suggestions from some senior UUP figures that the party will put little effort into North Antrim, recognising that it is unwinnable, which will also play into Mr Allister's hands.
A sideshow to the North Antrim battle between Mr Allister and Mr Paisley Jnr will be the relationship between the likely DUP candidate and the party's leader, Peter Robinson.
Mr Robinson and Ian Paisley Jnr have differed on a series of issues.
Yet both men potentially face mutually assured destruction if the other fails. If Mr Paisley Jnr loses a massive DUP majority in North Antrim, Mr Robinson could struggle to retain the DUP leadership.
Yet were Mr Robinson's position as DUP leader to weaken further, it would damage the party, potentially risking Mr Paisley's entry to Parliament.
Although the bookies have already decided that the next MP for North Antrim will be a Paisley, his majority will be reduced.
There are even those who will bet against him, something which five years ago would have been unthinkable.
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Tuesday 29 May 2012
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