What do we TUVists see in the UUP?
UNIONISM has been subject to rivalries for the last 40 years with different parties having bitter divisions and unlikely alliances.
It was TUV transfers which gave the UUP victory in Dromore and Jim Nicholson's election before Diane Dodds in the European elections.
The TUV is largely, though not solely, composed of former DUP supporters who left after the DUP's U-turn and entry into powersharing with Sinn Fein.
The UUP agreed to powersharing with SF in 1998 and hence, it initially seems odd that the TUV could be remotely friendly with them. This has led to the DUP spin that this voting dynamic is merely an example of sour grapes by the two smaller parties who dislike the DUP more than they do republicans. Like all such spin, it is a dishonest simplification.
It is true that TUV supporters find the CU's position honest: Trimble decided to go into government with Sinn Fein in the first Executive and gained a mandate for that decision. He then completely failed to stand up to SF and drew lines in the sand only to cross them but he was open about sharing power with SF: a fool, but an honest one.
In contrast the DUP were completely duplicitous in entering SF inclusive powersharing: they broke manifesto pledges and deceived their supporters. Many of those supporters now vote TUV and feel that they were lied to; unsurprisingly people who feel they have been lied to tend not to vote for the party they feel did the lying, even more so when the DUP pretend they have not changed position.
There are, however, positive reasons why the TUV and CU have somewhat similar agendas. Although all the unionist parties want modification of the Agreement, the CUs have been more vocal in criticising the current system and its inefficiency, incompetence and lack of democracy. All this strikes a chord with TUV supporters. The TUV are not simply opposed to Sinn Fein in government: their critique of the Agreement is also for its lack of proper cabinet government with collective responsibility, the absence of an opposition, the lack of transparency which allows the DUP and SF to make secret shady deals and the inability to vote a party out of government.
The DUP occasionally gives lip service to the need to change the system but that claim rings hollow when one sees their outworking of the Agreement. At least there is some possibility that the CU mean what they say: again they have a semi-plausible integrity which the DUP have completely sacrificed for power.
There are other competing factors which may make the CU TUV semi rapprochement temporary. Some point to David Cameron's relatively liberal social agenda which may antagonise some TUV voters: again though, regarding TUV supporters as all ultra-conservative Christians is a gross simplification.
The Westminster elections being first-past-the-post will not involve transferring and it is unlikely that many TUV voters will switch to the CUs to damage the DUP when there are TUV candidates.
The possibility of TUVists voting CU in seats where the TUV do not stand does exist. However, the constituency profiles mitigate against this: in North Belfast the only unionist candidate who can win is Nigel Dodds and although TUV voters may be annoyed by the DUP, they are not going to vote CU when that will hand the seat to Gerry Kelly.
The situation in Upper Bann may be interesting. If the TUV do not stand (as of yet it is unclear) the CU's choice of Harry Hamilton may be problematic. Mr Hamilton, whatever his qualities, is not particularly hard line, even within UUP circles. Hence, it may be difficult for TUV supporters to countenance voting for him no matter how irritated they are with David Simpson: a much wiser candidate in almost every way for the CUs would have been Danny Kennedy who is instead facing the impossible task of Newry and Armagh.
South Belfast is probably the only seat where TUV votes transferring to the CUs matters: it is quite possible that TUV supporters will vent their frustration with the DUP by switching to the CUs which might well stop the DUP taking the seat.
The only other relevant constituency is Fermanagh/South Tyrone where practically all unionists are calling out for an end to their non-representation by Gildernew. In Fermanagh/South Tyrone almost any unionist unity candidate would attract the enthusiastic support of the TUV. On the other hand, if the Tories' rather pompous insistence on standing in every seat results in a split unionist vote and the re-election of SF, that may well result in TUV supporters beyond Fermanagh/South Tyrone being as annoyed with the CUs as they currently are with the DUP.
David Morgan is a member of the TUV
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Tuesday 29 May 2012
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