Early indications in Upper Bann would indicate 2-2-2 for DUP, Sinn Fein and UUP, with the SDLP’s Dolores Kelly vulnerable to Sinn Fein’s Catherine Seeley.
It seems that Sinn Fein have managed their vote perfectly between Seeley and out-going Education Minister John O’Dowd, although Kelly – who has held the seat since 2003 – has a history of scraping through on transfers at the final count.
Indications are that the DUP’s Carla Lockhart could top the poll, with her running-mate Sydney Anderson also polling well.
The UUP have three on the card, with two likely to make it. The smart money is on sitting member Jo-Anne Dobson, the front-runner of the three, with Army veteran Doug Beattie likely to join her – but Kyle Savage is not to be discounted.
The minor parties – including Alliance’s Harry Hamilton – rarely make beyond the early counts in Upper Bann, where there is a field of 17. Just one in three will make it, and the early indications are that the ‘twos’ will be the outcome.
The first count is due between 2-3pm.
The turn-out in Upper Bann is 54.44 per cent, with 46,383 votes cast. That means a quota of 6,626.