David Hoey: The DUP does not have a death wish so will need to stand firm on its Stormont policy

Perhaps, instead of wishing the DUP to be humiliated in having to return to Stormont and proving them ‘right’, commentators need to look at why that might not be so likely.

There are plenty of reasons not to restore Stormont on some Conservative government promise, based on ‘trust’ of which there is none.

The TUV remains a latent threat, with representation in far more council areas than it has in the Assembly.

The Windsor Framework makes the Northern Ireland Protocol ‘a little less unworkable’ at best. There is no way the DUP can be in Stormont and having to administer the many issues that will arise as the rigorous implementation of all aspects of the protocol take effect. The blame will be reflected back on it with every protocol problem it highlights.

The ability to do anything additional at Stormont that does not require funding from Westminster, not least anything meaningful with regard to the ‘cost-of-living crisis’, is zero.

There is no amount of money that will bring either political gain from more funds into the bottomless pit that is the Stormont budget or resolution to the core issue of the Northern Ireland Protocol.

Add to all this, as Nigel Dodds articulated at length, there is nothing the British government is doing currently that meets the DUP’s own seven tests. Gavin Robinson put it more succinctly:

“Unionists are being asked to accept infrastructure between Northern Ireland and the rest of the United Kingdom which nationalists would never have tolerated North-South. Indeed, we had too much respect for our nationalist neighbours to even ask them to accept such arrangements.”

This echoes what Sir Jeffrey Donaldson had said earlier:

“Unionists just want a fair deal. Nationalists would never have been asked to accept the kind of arrangements North-South that unionists are being asked to accept between one part of the UK and another.”

Which is a version of what was directed at the UK-EU Parliamentary Assembly before that:

“Sadly, some viewed the NI Protocol through their border poll advancing spectacles rather than the 20-20 vision of what is best for peace and prosperity in Northern Ireland.”

What is remarkable from Northern Ireland ‘commentators’ is that views on the DUP are always couched in terms of Jeffrey having to deal with the ‘hard-liners’, where Nigel Dodds would be categorised. Yet there is a clear consistency across Donaldson, Robinson and Dodds.

The mood within the unionist electorate that votes, reflected in the strength of vote in the council elections, is one of broad support for the DUP’s current stance on staying out of Stormont until issues around the Northern Ireland Protocol are addressed. That vote was in the face of relentless campaigning against the DUP by all and sundry; locally, nationally, and some internationally putting their oar in.

In the News Letter, Owen Polley suggests, despite best efforts by some to present otherwise, the most recent polling confirms core DUP electoral strength lies in not restoring Stormont for the time being at least (Polling shows risk to DUP if it changes course on Stormont,’ August 7).

To not just roll over on the protocol and return to Stormont, but to do a double flip back somersault volte-face with that return, would be a step of unbelievable electoral bravery.

The DUP knows that it isn’t entirely trusted by many who currently vote for the party. A great many hold their nose to vote DUP, on the Union issue alone. There are many others who don’t, and for now do not vote at all, but just might if the DUP proves its ability to deliver on the Union. These are testing times for the DUP. For once, the DUP will need to stand firm.

These are the electoral considerations the DUP must ponder. It must believe that there is a possibility that with Stormont not restored there may be an election at the end of January, something it would not fear, unless it was facing all the protocol issues with no obvious means of responding. The UUP may not be so sanguine. There is a Westminster election in 2024, and it could not be seen to lose any seats.

There is no reason to believe the present Conservative government could be trusted on delivering anything. It may not be that an incoming Labour government could be more trusted, but it may be sensible to wait and see if there is a more favourable political environment in which to act politically.

The DUP has significant calls to make going forward.

It is possible that there is a decision by the DUP to return to Stormont, and that all the above is regarded as too alarmist with hindsight. Go back ‘at any cost’ might well be the favoured option: live with subsequent events, however the dice rolls, and make the best of it. It is a gamble that may pay off or, equally, won’t. If the gamble fails, the Democratic Unionist Party is over. The end may not be immediate, but the chances of surviving whole would be slim.

There are a host of good reasons for the DUP not to return to Stormont at the present time. There are few justifications for a return to Stormont that would stand the test of time.

The DUP is not a party known for political gambles, and it certainly hasn’t a death-wish.

David Hoey is a businessman and commentator. He podcasts with Owen Polley at PoliticalOD. Polley is on holiday