‘Where’s the Northern Ireland economy?’

Thirty years ago, Bill Clinton’s election campaign adopted three key slogans.

“Change vs. more of the same” and “Don’t forget health care” set the tone but were quickly overshadowed by the third - “It’s the economy, stupid”.

How easily all three could be adopted in the current Assembly election, but it is the third that is of greatest relevance to business owners – employers – right across NI.

A vibrant economy is essential to give people the resources and the resolve to weather the storms that are sweeping over us, in terms of prices, inflation and uncertainty.

Our system of mandatory coalition suggests we will, indeed, get ‘more of the same’. With some of the worst waiting lists in the UK, exacerbated by the pandemic, there’s little chance of electors forgetting health care. So that leaves ‘the economy’ as the overriding criterion on which the public will focus as world events make the spiralling cost of living a cause of daily concern. The frustration of business owners is palpable, as uncertainty buffets the economy from every angle.

Meanwhile, our politicians return to the electorate to win their mandate – again. What a different world from just five years ago, at the last Assembly election. Theresa May was still Prime Minister, Covid was an unknown blight on the planet, the NI Protocol hadn’t been conceived let alone born, and the previous Assembly mandate had ended in a state of collapse. The 2017 election was intended to inject new momentum, but it came and went, and three years passed before the parties finally worked out their differences to agree New Decade New Approach and return to Stormont.

Two years later, with a pandemic under their belts and the manifold challenges arising from the Protocol, the Executive has collapsed again, with the prospect of the election simply being the commencement of a lengthy period of negotiations, rather than an end to the rancour and the start

of a new and vigorous mandate.

Against this backdrop of instability, business has been clear about what it wants to see. FSB has published its manifesto – a thoroughly researched, evidence-based piece of work into which FSB NI’s 6,000 members have had an opportunity to input - so the parties are in no doubt as to the top

priorities that business owners think an incoming Executive should embrace.

In order to crystallise the positions of the five largest parties and leave no room for doubt, FSB is staging the Business Hustings later today, at which the parties’ economy spokespeople will be cross examined by journalist and broadcaster, Karen Patterson. Partnering FSB in the hustings will be Women in Business and Ulster University Business School. Roseanne Kelly, CEO of Women in Business and Gareth Hetherington, director of the Ulster University Economic Policy Centre will join Roger Pollen, head of FSB NI, in a ‘challenge panel’ to reflect on the answers given by the parties.

Bizarrely, in a contest described as the ‘most important election in a generation’ the cost of doing business crisis has not yet been to the fore. Slogans about rebuilding the economy have appeared in recent days and there have been occasional mentions of protecting and supporting jobs, but little detail has been forthcoming on which the electorate can make its assessment. One school of thought has it that, because of the fiscal irresponsibility displayed by the previous Executive, some parties have perhaps deemed it too risky to formulate their campaigns around the economy; however, waiting for Stormont to get its finances in order is no excuse for failure to bring forward an agreed framework for our economy. While there are few short-term fixes to remedy weak growth and productivity, immediate actions need to be taken to ensure that firms move from economic ‘life support’ to realising their potential. 

FSB, Women in Business and the Ulster University Business School will strive to use the hustings get answers to the big economic questions that hang over this election campaign as the main parties go head-to-head in the debate. As a mandatory coalition, post-election, they will have to work together, so the hustings will seek to identify common ground on which they can all agree to stand, and shared objectives that they will seek to secure, so that business has some idea of what to expect.

In a month from now, successful candidates will be finding out what the electorate has said and thinking about drawing up a new Programme for Government. It would be folly to ignore the analysis that swept Bill Clinton into office, so ‘the economy’ must be front and centre of political ambition if they are to support a society of engaged, employed, empowered people.

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