Northern Ireland house price growth '˜slow but steady'

The Quarterly House Price Index from Ulster University indicates that the market to experienced a steady rate of price growth in Q1 2018 despite a slight decrease in the number of actual sales.

The data, produced in partnership with the Northern Ireland Housing Executive and Progressive Building Society, shows that the overall price for the first quarter of 2018 was £163,621, representing an annual increase of 6.6% relative to the first quarter of 2017.

However, allowing for differences in sample mix by property type, the weighted increase over the year is 4%, indicating real growth in sale price above the rate of inflation.

The average house price for Northern Ireland is also higher over the quarter with a 3.4% simple percentage increase relative to the final quarter of 2017 or in weighted terms, allowing for changes in sample mix, a rise of 3.1%.

The distribution of sale prices is broadly similar to the previous quarter although the share of lower priced properties at or below £100,000 has decreased to 22% of the sample.

Likewise, the market share by property type remains broadly the same as semi-detached houses continue as the dominant sector, accounting for more than one third of all transactions.

Sales volumes are lower for the first quarter of 2018, almost certainly reflecting seasonality in the market and the relatively adverse weather conditions that prevailed in the opening months of 2018. The volume of transactions in the survey is 1,842 compared with 2,219 in Q4 2017.

“These rates of growth, above the general level of inflation, can provide confidence to both home-owners and potential purchasers regarding the value of their investments while still maintaining affordability in the local housing market,” said lead researcher, Prof Stanley McGreal from Ulster University.

Michael Boyd, Progressive deputy chief executive, said the consumer squeeze that had been building throughout 2017 had eased, with inflation falling against the backdrop of rising wages and boosting spending power in the process.

“The seasonal impact on sales within the housing market in Q4 2017 has been offset by a strong start to 2018.

“Prices across most house types and regions are up in Q1 2018, representing steady but sustainable growth as the report measures an increase in sale price above the rate of inflation,” he said.