Coronavirus: Robin Swann ‘did not make public’ best case scenario of 250 deaths in NI

Health Minister Robin Swann did not make public a best-case scenario of just 250 coronavirus deaths in Northern Ireland, a BBC Spotlight investigation claimed.
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The programme revealed a leaked document which showed that Mr Swann chose to keep the scenario secret to try to ensure public adherence to the lockdown.

In April Mr Swann shared some of what new scientific modelling of the pandemic said. It was that 3,000 people could die in a “reasonable worst-case scenario”.

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But the document revealed on Spotlight said that the modellers put the best-case scenario at just 250 deaths.

Modelling gave projections of best and worst case scenarios for Covid-19Modelling gave projections of best and worst case scenarios for Covid-19
Modelling gave projections of best and worst case scenarios for Covid-19

The leaked document said he feared if the scenario was published, the public will have a false sense of security.

The Department of Health told the BBC that publishing the best and worst cases - both deemed unrealistic - would have sent out mixed messages at a crucial time.

According to the latest report from the Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency (Nisra), there have been 757 deaths linked to coronavirus in Northern Ireland up to May 29. These figures record all fatalities where Covid-19 was mentioned on a death certificate.

No new Covid-19 deaths were recorded in Northern Ireland for the third day in a row, according to the Department of Health on Tuesday.