Covid-19 surges in winter just like flu does, DoH confirms - a second wave would have been “very difficult to avoid” this winter

The comments came after the News Letter probed reports that Covid-19 infections rates across the world have all slumped during summer and risen with the onset of winter.

The News Letter put it to QUB Emeritus Prof of Virology Bert Rima that Covid-19 and seasonal flu have something significant in common around the world, in that they both spike during the colder months; and that therefore a spike in infection rates was always going to happen in the UK as winter arrived.

Asked if there is a logic to this, Prof Rima replied: “Yes, the logic is that both viruses are better preserved when the weather is cold and a second factor is that as people move indoors together the transmission rates is higher.”

The News Letter then put it to the Department of Health that Covid-19 follows a seasonal pattern just like flu and that this appears to be supported by much lower death rates along the equator, where it is typically hot all year round.

The Department of Health (DoH) confirmed to the News Letter that it had taken all these facts into account in setting policy.

Asked if a second wave of some description was therefore ‘absolutely inevitable’ with the onset of winter in NI, she affirmed that this was accurate.

“Increased cases as a result of seasonal transmission have occurred throughout Europe and would always have been very difficult to avoid,” she said.

The News Letter asked if the NI Executive has made any assessment as to how much these seasonal factors impact on infection rates - and of the implications for policy decisions in combatting Covid.

The DOH responded: “Seasonal factors are significant in virus spread – it is not possible to put a number on the size of the seasonal effect.”

Asked if the comparison between flu and Covid fatality rates justify the dramatic difference in policy approaches to both, the DOH said it did.

“Covid is a new virus, with absolutely no baseline population immunity and there was no vaccine available. This contrasts with flu, where a significant level of population resistance exists each year and a vaccine is available early.”

The Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency (NISRA) said that the total number of confirmed deaths caused by Covid-19 up until the end of September was 808, compared to only 19 caused by flu.

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