‘I don’t know if NI health service will cope with ICU surge next week’, warns top doctor as Nightingale ramp-up continues

A leading doctor has said he doesn’t know if Northern Ireland’s health service will be able cope with the number of people expected to be admitted to intensive care with coronavirus next week.
Clinical staff wear Personal Protective Equipment (PPE) as they care for a patient at the Intensive Care unit at Royal Papworth Hospital on May 5, 2020 in Cambridge, England. (Photo by Neil Hall - Pool/Getty Images)Clinical staff wear Personal Protective Equipment (PPE) as they care for a patient at the Intensive Care unit at Royal Papworth Hospital on May 5, 2020 in Cambridge, England. (Photo by Neil Hall - Pool/Getty Images)
Clinical staff wear Personal Protective Equipment (PPE) as they care for a patient at the Intensive Care unit at Royal Papworth Hospital on May 5, 2020 in Cambridge, England. (Photo by Neil Hall - Pool/Getty Images)

Dr Tom Black, the chair of the British Medical Association’s Northern Ireland committee, said the number of intensive care patients – already at a record high – is expected to peak next week.

“Will the pressures in intensive care become something we can cope with, or are we looking at something worse than that,” he said. “That’s a question I don’t know the answer to.”

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His warning, in an interview with the News Letter, came as Northern Ireland’s health minister said the hospital system will come under “intense pressure” in the next week.

Robin Swann, speaking to the BBC, said: “We know that the next seven days is when we will see that real intense pressure coming on our inpatients and our intensive care units (ICU).

“Our worst-case scenario has us modelling up to 1,200 inpatients, and that’s a serious pressure, but then also in the week to 10 days that follow the additional pressures then that come on our ICU beds.”

Mr Swann said there are surge plans for ICU to accommodate up to nearly 200 beds.

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“That comes at a stretch, that comes with putting our staff under severe pressure in ICU units,” he said, adding that would see specialist nurse/patient ratios go from 1:1 to 1:2-1:3.

“That’s not something we want to do but it’s something that we have modelled and built into that surge capacity.

“Today, we have 144 ICU beds across our system stood up and staffed, and that looks after not just Covid patients but also other patients who need ICU support.”

Currently, there are 111 patients in intensive care in Northern Ireland – 65 of whom are coronavirus patients.

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Dr Black said clinical care doctors are concerned about staffing levels.

“I have had meetings with critical care doctors and their big concern is will they be able to staff the Nightingale hospital. The limiting factor there isn’t the number of beds in the City Hospital, the limiting factor is getting enough doctors and nurses.”
He added: “People are stressed out and exhausted physically, psychologically, every which way. We’re just trying to hold it together for the next four-to-six weeks and then we’ll start seeing decreases in hospital, a decrease in deaths and a decrease in the use of intensive care. That will all happen in late February, the beginning of March.”