Bank of England says inflation near to ‘peak’ as rates on hold

The Bank said it believes pay growth will start to rise next year
The Bank said it believes pay growth will start to rise next year

The Bank of England has said Brexit-fuelled inflation is “close to its peak” as it kept interest rates on hold after the first hike for a decade last month.

But minutes of the latest decision showed policymakers are expecting an end-of-year dip in economic growth, with signs pointing to fourth quarter expansion being “somewhat below” the 0.4% seen in the third quarter.

The Bank’s nine-strong Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted unanimously to leave rates unchanged after November’s milestone rise from 0.25% to 0.5%.

Policymakers said there were further signs of respite on the way for income squeezed households as it confirmed inflation would soon start to ease back after hitting a near-six year high of 3.1% in November.

The Bank said: “The MPC continued to judge that inflation was likely to be close to its peak and would decline towards the 2% target in the medium term.”

Official data on Tuesday revealed the higher-than-expected inflation figures, which means Bank governor Mark Carney must pen a letter to Chancellor Philip Hammond - due to be published in February - outlining the reason behind the rapid rise.

The Bank said it also still believes pay growth - which has lagged behind inflation for seven months in a row - would start to rise next year, but stressed “uncertainties” around this remained.

On economic growth, minutes of the meeting showed that recent figures from the various sectors of the economy pointed to fourth quarter expansion being “slightly softer” than in the previous three months.

But it said growth was set to be “a little above” the 0.2% forecast in its November inflation report.

The Bank said it expects there to be a modest boost to economic growth from last month’s Budget move to slow the pace of austerity cuts, by around 0.3% over the next three years.

Although it said the Budget changes will also add an extra 0.1% to inflation over that period.

It also said the recent progress made in the Government’s Brexit negotiations, which allowed talks to move on to the issue of trade, would “reduce the likelihood of a disorderly exit and was likely to support household and corporate confidence”.