'˜Pockets of resilience and success' mask slow growth and Brexit fears

That is the somehwhat discourging outlook presented in the first Quarterly Economic Survey (QES) published by Northern Ireland Chamber of Commerce and Industry (NI Chamber) in association with business advisors BDO.

Looking back on the last three months of 2017, it said the headline figures were strong but indicated rising pressures such as weak investment in manufacturing and both manufacturing and services sectors facing a precarious cash flow position.

Add to that increasing concerns over political instability and growing fears about Brexit and the outlook for 2018 is less than wholly positive said Chamber CEO Ann McGregor.

“Continued uncertainty over Brexit and the burden of upfront cost pressures facing businesses is likely to stifle business investment and put pressure on prices in an already challenging inflationary environment,” she said.

“The continued weakness in the UK’s productivity, and especially Northern Ireland’s, remains a key concern and reflects the lack of progress in dealing with some of the deep-rooted structural problems in the economy - from skills gaps to creaking physical infrastructure.

“However without an Executive in place at Stormont it is difficult to address these challenges, and the survey reveals the continued frustration of our members at the lack of a functioning Executive.

“We cannot face 2018 without a government where Northern Ireland Ministers take decisions on Northern Ireland matters.”

The survey reveals that a growing share of businesses are putting growth and investment plans on hold as a result of Brexit.

Against that background, almost half (46%) of businesses expect the NI economy to contract in 2018 with 33% forecasting it to grow.

Businesses are more optimistic about their own prospects for the year ahead with 64% expecting their firm to expand.

“The continued growth of the manufacturing and services sector in Northern Ireland is reassuring and should give comfort to those who remain apprehensive about the future,” said Brian Murphy, managing partner at BDO Northern Ireland.

“That nearly two-thirds (64%) of local businesses expect their firms to expand over the coming year is both welcome and encouraging.

“That is not to ignore the concerns that some may have.

“Without doubt, the challenges we in Northern Ireland face in respect of the uncertainty surrounding Brexit and the continued absence of a functioning Executive are many.

“However, this survey provides demonstrable proof that our local entrepreneurs are creative and resilient and are simply getting on with business.”