The DUP's hand isn't as strong as they think, and they should play it very carefully

So spooked, in fact, that Sammy Wilson told the BBC: “If there is any hint that in order to placate Dublin and the EU they’re (Theresa May’s government) prepared to have Northern Ireland treated differently than the rest of the UK, then they can’t rely on our vote.”

A few hours later, Peter Robinson – only wheeled out when he senses danger – accused Irish ministers of “clambering over each other to instil fear in unionist minds and express gratuitously anti-British rhetoric. They are doing significant harm to North/South relations”.

What made the interventions of Wilson and Robinson particularly significant was that an earlier DUP response to the Times story – issued before Nigel Dodds and others (although not Wilson, who was only briefed afterwards) met senior Conservatives – noted: “As the EU exit discussions continue, there will be from time to time speculation, some of which is ill-informed from those not across the details.”

Yet, after that response, after the meeting with Dodds and Conservatives, and after Wilson was briefed about the meeting, he still felt it necessary to say that May shouldn’t take DUP support for granted. No one in the DUP went on record to disagree with Wilson. Instead, Strangford MP Jim Shannon said: “There is no divergence within the party on this issue. We are putting a marker down and making it clear what our position is.”

Here’s how I see it. Theresa May will always prioritise the big, final deal over the concerns of the DUP. She has no other choice: the post-Brexit future of the United Kingdom is more important to her than keeping 10 MPs on board. Putting it bluntly, she is not going to refuse a deal just because the DUP don’t like aspects of the deal. She is not going to walk away from a deal because Nigel Dodds – even though he won a prize for ‘Negotiator of the Year’ – doesn’t like the deal.

As I tweeted on Thursday, ‘If Theresa May needs to cut a deal that risks losing DUP support –she will take that risk.” And the response from some within the DUP suggests that they don’t disagree with me.

I’ve said before that the DUP’s position is not as strong as it looks. Yes, they may have the power to topple May, but they certainly don’t have the power to deliver an alternative which is more to their liking. And while they may not fear another general election they can’t take it for granted that they will keep their 10 seats or share of the vote. They wouldn’t want Corbyn to win. They wouldn’t want the Conservatives to win with a stronger majority. If there was a hung parliament then it’s very unlikely that anyone would want to cut a new deal with them.

So, withdrawing support from May doesn’t actually guarantee any political/electoral benefits for them.

The DUP is not more powerful than Leo Varadkar. It is not more powerful than the EU’s negotiators. It is not more powerful than a British government.

In fairness to the DUP, they did – as I suggested in the run-up to it – negotiate a fairly canny deal with the Conservatives in June. But it was a deal which was done in the expectation that the Assembly and Executive would be up and running within weeks.

They need to be similarly canny, now. They must have known the consequences of a vote to leave the EU, although I’m pretty sure that they didn’t expect the outcome of the referendum. They are not the voice of the majority in Northern Ireland when it comes to Brexit and they have to avoid acting as though they are. They cannot expect their 10 MPs to hold either the government or Parliament to ransom. They must never lose sight of the fact that the stakes are enormous and that they don’t, in fact, have a credible veto.

They need to be talking: to the other local parties, to the Irish government, to EU negotiators, to the Scottish Parliament and Welsh Assembly and to the other parties in Westminster.

They need a coherent gameplan rather than simply tossing brickbats at Sinn Fein and the Irish government: let’s face it, Varadkar and Adams are playing the hand circumstances have dealt them – in precisely the same way Foster played her cards with the Conservatives in June.

The Union between Northern Ireland and Great Britain is not dependent upon a deal between the DUP and Conservatives; nor a deal between any unionist party or any UK government. It is dependent upon a majority in Northern Ireland supporting it in any future border poll.

So, the primary task of the unionist parties – their only task, some might say – is to act in a way which ensures that a majority continue to believe that the Union remains a better option than any other alternative presented to them.

I’ve argued before that the challenges facing the Union and unionism are greater now than they have been in my lifetime. Brexit has changed both the nature and dynamics of the debate and it would be irresponsible of unionists – the DUP in particular – not to acknowledge and respond to these new challenges. Above all else, though, the DUP must now tread very, very carefully.