Foster back in a position of relative strength after Assembly poll disaster

Yet, six weeks before the general election and she’s looking pretty strong again. The overture to the Irish language lobby has played well and there is a growing sense across unionism that this is now a showdown between her, as leader of unionism, and Gerry Adams’s beefed-up campaign for Irish unity. Even those unionists who voted Remain – and who have huge concerns about the shape and consequences of Brexit – seem to be acknowledging that a message needs to be sent to Adams on June 8: “We haven’t gone away, you know.”

Seven of the DUP’s eight Westminster seats look reasonably safe – even without a pact – and they also fancy their chances of gains in both South Antrim (UUP) and South Belfast (SDLP). Saturday week ago, even before the pact talks had begun, the UUP had announced that they wouldn’t be contesting North Belfast. It seemed an odd card to throw away so quickly, because it was the only strong one Robin Swann had in his hand. The DUP was never going to contest Fermanagh/South Tyrone against Tom Elliott, because Foster doesn’t want the blame if that seat returns to Sinn Fein.

Foster is also helped by the fact that the UUP took an unexpectedly hard hit (the second one in a row, leaving them with MLAs in just nine of the 18 constituencies) and Swann hasn’t been leader long enough to establish his own control and identity. The pact talks for 2015 took over six months to draw up: this time they have about two weeks. It’s still possible that a last-minute deal could be brokered in South Belfast/East Belfast, but the DUP seem pretty confident that they can hold East without a pact (and I agree with their analysis). Meanwhile, in South Belfast, it might actually be easier for the DUP to gain the seat without a pact, because a pact might simply send votes from Sinn Fein and Alliance to prop up Alasdair McDonnell.

Swann’s biggest problem, though, is that he wasn’t expecting his first election to come so quickly. His hope would have been that SF and the DUP would cut a deal, reboot the Executive and give him until the local government elections in 2019 to settle the party and prepare it for another campaign. Instead, he has his first test on June 8 and the possibility of a third Assembly election in early autumn.

A bad result in a few weeks could – and I don’t want to overegg the pudding – lead to electoral catastrophe in an autumn election. Neither South Antrim nor Fermanagh/South Tyrone is bankable and in the absence of a deal with the DUP there is no hope of a gain anywhere else. The party may have added votes on March 2; but a rise of 0.3% against a 10% increase in overall turnout suggests that an electoral breakthrough is very unlikely.

His best chance of an extra seat would have to be South Belfast and he will be willing to look at proposals from the DUP and others. Mike Nesbitt’s name has been mentioned by the UUP (although I’m not sure if the punting came from the party leadership or Mike’s supporters), but a senior DUP figure told me last week; “There is no chance Nesbitt would be given a free run anywhere – certainly not where the UUP candidate came seventh in first preferences.”

Nesbitt may look like an obvious fit for a ‘diverse, cosmopolitan, heavily mixed’ seat, but it is worth bearing in mind that the unionist vote there has shifted very substantially to the DUP in the past 20 years. Let’s face it; the party hasn’t even an MLA in the constituency! That said, unionists won’t want to throw away the opportunity to win back the seat, so they will consider a deal until the last moment: maybe even the possibility of an ‘outside’ candidate who can be endorsed by broader unionism.

Meanwhile, the smaller unionist parties won’t be making much of an impact. The TUV will contest North Antrim and possibly Strangford and East Antrim, but it will be just to keep their name in the frame for PR purposes and gauging support if another Assembly election comes along. I’m pretty sure the PUP won’t be contesting any seat. And Ukip and the Conservatives – who managed just 3,978 votes and half a percent between them in March – will probably lose their deposit in any seat they contest.

So it looks like the DUP will have a good day on June 8: the sort of day which will set them up for another Assembly election if one comes along. I’m pretty sure SF will also have a good day – which means they’ll also be up for another election. The SDLP/UUP are slowly, but surely, being squeezed into irrelevance; while Alliance, even though it had a good day on March 2, still doesn’t seem able to make the big, significant breakthrough for the self-styled middle-ground.

Those who despair about increasing polarisation need to – and pretty damn quickly – come up with a strategy for reversing a very worrying trend. Tweeting their despair isn’t enough!