Need for a serious debate on a border poll is very real

Every senior politician '“ probably every politician '“ knows that they're never more than a few feet away from a microphone, a camera, or a '˜source'.
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A ‘source’ is the person who – in exchange for anonymity – briefs a journalist (although it’s more often a ‘blogger’ these days) about what was said in a meeting that was supposed to be private. Prime ministers are well aware of this (indeed, they often authorise the briefing); meaning that, in most cases, there is no such thing as the unguarded moment or the ‘unintentionally candid’ comment.

Theresa May knew exactly what she was doing when she responded to a comment on a border poll from Jacob Rees-Mogg: “I would not be as confident as you. That’s not a risk I’m prepared to take. We cannot be confident on the politics of that situation, on how it plays out.”

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She wasn’t, of course, addressing her comments to Rees-Mogg, at all. They were intended for the DUP and, by extension, all unionists across Northern Ireland. The prime minister of the United Kingdom was, in fact, telling those unionists that there was no guarantee that a border poll would be won. She didn’t even try to soft-soap her view. No, her position was brutally, scarily, unambiguous: “I would not be as confident as you.”

Alex KaneAlex Kane
Alex Kane

That’s an extraordinary thing for a prime minister to say; particularly a prime minister being propped up by the DUP.

She and her Cabinet have seen the latest polling figures from local company Lucid Talk – a company which has developed an impressive record for accuracy. Its findings suggest, and this is my personal summing up of their figures, that unionists cannot afford to be complacent about winning a border poll – particularly in the event of a hard Brexit and new installations on the North/South border.

Today Mrs May will see a new set of figures – published in the early hours of Monday morning (I’ve posted the link on my Twitter account @AlexKane221b) – which contain the same warnings. While there isn’t a majority for an immediate border poll after the UK leaves the EU (only 46.6% overall – 28.5% Protestant/68.4% Catholic), the figures indicate that if there were such a poll then the pro-Union side could win with just 50.3% (79.3% Protestant/20.6% Catholic). That’s uncomfortably close.

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The poll also suggests that more Catholics (and I’m aware, of course, that this isn’t just a Protestant/Catholic thing) would vote to stay in the UK if the UK as a whole, or just NI – remained in the single market and customs union. More important – from a unionist perspective – the figures suggest that 61% Protestants and 61% Catholics favour the UK staying in the customs union and single market: while 69% overall would vote Remain if there were a second referendum (looking increasingly likely, in my opinion) – up from 56% in 2016.

Theresa May knew exactly what she was doing during her response to Jacob Rees-Mogg on the prospect of a border pollTheresa May knew exactly what she was doing during her response to Jacob Rees-Mogg on the prospect of a border poll
Theresa May knew exactly what she was doing during her response to Jacob Rees-Mogg on the prospect of a border poll

These latest figures will worry Theresa May. They will also worry the DUP. A hard border and a hard Brexit raise huge problems for both the prime minister and her allies. She doesn’t want to be the prime minister who loses part of the United Kingdom and my hunch – and it is only my hunch – is that she would, if push came to shove, settle for Northern Ireland remaining in the customs union and single market (while GB doesn’t) even if it means facing down the DUP, her own rebels (who seem increasingly woolly and divided on substantial solutions) and relying on Labour and the SNP to back her.

Yes, that could lead to another snap election if the DUP abandon her, but a snap election looks likely anyway, given her problems with her own internal factions. Also, what does the DUP do if she does face them down? Where do they go? Who do they rely on? The Union – and local unionism – requires two-way support; and that means that sometimes the smaller partner must yield to the broader, bigger interests of the larger partner.

The most interesting aspect of the recent polling is the fact that around 10% of Protestants and 26% of Catholics describe themselves as ‘don’t know’ on the UK versus Irish unity debate. That may seem smallish; but it certainly isn’t insignificant when the margin between the Union and unity seems to be so narrow and when it probably requires those ‘don’t knows’ to give one side or the other a comfortable margin of victory. In other words, what happens in the next few months will shape and steer the debate. One thing I do know – and I do a lot of panels and conferences – is that people who wouldn’t even have entertained a discussion on Irish unity five years ago are now prepared to look at the facts and listen to the arguments.

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There will be the usual temptation to dismiss the polls – “sure polls have been proved wrong time after time”. And I’ve also heard DUP politicians suggest that there is nothing to worry about. My own view is that the outcome of a poll based on something as substantial as creating a new country would be enormously difficult to predict: everything would be in play and much would depend on what both governments would do to promote their side of the argument. Much would also depend on the final deal between the UK and the EU.

So fine, dismiss the polls if you want to: but don’t dismiss the need for a serious debate; don’t dismiss the fact that the debate has already begun – in some unexpected quarters too; don’t dismiss the prospect of a border poll anytime soon; and don’t dismiss the concerns of increasing numbers of people who actually just want clarity and certainty on what’s likely to happen.