Ben Lowry: The threat of a border in the Irish Sea has still not been put to bed

If, as the seasoned Daily Telegraph journalist Peter Foster reports (see story link below), the EU has rejected UK proposals for a frictionless border in the event of regulatory and customs divergence, it means one of four things.
How can unionists now engage in Stormont talks with Simon Coveney when he is at the helm of an Dublin-Brussels refusal to accept UK proposals on the Irish border, which will result in outcomes ranging from the collapse of the Brexit negotiations to a border in the Irish SeaHow can unionists now engage in Stormont talks with Simon Coveney when he is at the helm of an Dublin-Brussels refusal to accept UK proposals on the Irish border, which will result in outcomes ranging from the collapse of the Brexit negotiations to a border in the Irish Sea
How can unionists now engage in Stormont talks with Simon Coveney when he is at the helm of an Dublin-Brussels refusal to accept UK proposals on the Irish border, which will result in outcomes ranging from the collapse of the Brexit negotiations to a border in the Irish Sea

First, it might mean the UK has to agree UK-wide regulatory and customs alignment with the EU, which would be unacceptable to Brexiteer Tory backbenchers, who are more numerous than the party’s most determined Remain MPs.

Second, it might mean the UK has to agree alignment between Northern Ireland and the EU, which will mean a border in the Irish Sea and an end to the Province’s participation in the UK internal market (perhaps an unprecedented scenario for a fully constituent part of a major nation state).

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Third, it might mean the UK issues new plans, acceptable to the EU, on how to have free flow of goods without any border checks whatsoever (hard to envisage).

Fourth, it might mean UK-EU negotiations collapse.

If the latter scenario, Theresa May will come under pressure from officials to introduce a border in the Irish Sea to keep talks on track.

Simon Coveney, writing in the Irish Times on Thursday, made clear that Dublin’s position on this is as robust as ever. While he does not say as much in that article, the logic of his stance, and that of the EU officials who rejected UK proposals, is that there can be no customs/regulatory divergence, preferably between UK and EU, or if not then between NI and EU.

In other words, this matter has still not been put to bed, despite Mrs May (weeks ago to this newspaper, see link below), ruling out an Irish Sea border.

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One thing about this ongoing dispute from which unionists can take comfort is that Dublin wants clarity by June. If London agrees to an internal UK border by then, the DUP will have to topple Mrs May.

Ireland and Brussels seem to know they have the UK in a bind.

Again you wonder how unionists can now engage in Stormont talks with Mr Coveney when he is at the helm of this aggressive stance.

• Ben Lowry (@BenLowry2) is News Letter deputy editor