Ben Lowry: Unionist voters go into this election confused and with low morale

It is far from clear how the confusion and anger within unionism will impact on the election results.
Low morale within unionism could lead to a depressed turnout from unionist voters. It could lead to an increased Ulster Unionist vote in protest at the DUP, or the polarised atmosphere might help the latterLow morale within unionism could lead to a depressed turnout from unionist voters. It could lead to an increased Ulster Unionist vote in protest at the DUP, or the polarised atmosphere might help the latter
Low morale within unionism could lead to a depressed turnout from unionist voters. It could lead to an increased Ulster Unionist vote in protest at the DUP, or the polarised atmosphere might help the latter

Unionists are uncertain over how to respond to Boris Johnson’s economic border in the Irish Sea. Should unionists now turn against Brexit? Should they try to find allies who are both Brexiteer and unionist? Does the latter combination even exist much in Great Britain?

There is uncertainty as to the actual impact of the deal, and has been since the Brexit secretary Stephen Barclay said there would have to be declarations for internal UK movements of goods, but Boris Johnson said there would not.

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The same conflicting messages came yesterday after Jeremy Corbyn cited a Treasury document that would be form filling, and Mr Johnson again said there would not be.

The complicated nature of the Brexit deal explains why the DUP faced little criticism for agreeing a regulatory border in the Irish Sea (to check standards of goods), albeit on the basis of a Stormont lock.

Low morale within unionism could lead to a depressed turnout. It might lead to an increased vote for Ulster Unionist candidates, in protest at perceived DUP failures. The UUP says it is getting good feedback on the doorsteps. But the DUP says it is too, and it might be boosted by the polarised atmosphere.

A weather vane seat for unionism is North Down. The UUP has a big task reclaiming the Westminster seat because it stayed out of it for so long in favour of Lady Sylvia Hermon, whose world view seems close to that of Alliance. If the UUP cannot win or at least be a serious contender in N. Down, once a safe seat for the party, it is in poor shape.

Ben Lowry (@BenLowry2) is News Letter deputy editor