Steve Aiken: We have to lend our support to Ukraine and take steps to defend ourselves

It has also been forgotten that Ukraine has conspicuously not fallen to the 21st century equivalent of the Soviet Shock Armies.

At the moment, in military strategy terms, both sides are 'paused' and their current lines of operation have probably culminated into stalemates. A village or a road a few kilometres in either direction in the Donbas (the region in the east of Ukraine that has been seized by Russia) does not equate to a 'decisive' battle.

While the Ukraine doesn't have the combat power to throw Russia out, Vladimir Putin's forces can't defeat the Ukrainian Army. Russia has neither the manpower nor the operational art to breakthrough - it can't win on the battlefield.

There is a military stalemate that can only be broken by a significant material shift on both sides in the protagonists’ fortunes.

Those Putin apologists, and regrettably there are more than a few, even here in Northern Ireland, somehow believe that by Trump's seemingly pro Russian actions, that will be enough for the Ukraine to fold. It won't, but it will prolong the agony.

Ukraine also won't fold, and again it can't be said often enough, because folding means no more Ukraine.

Ukrainians know only far too well their likely fate under Putin. They have no other option than to fight on, because that is the reality, they have no other choice.

Right now the Ukraine is self-sufficient in about 30/40% of its arms. It probably has stockpiles of sophisticated US weapons and systems for about six more months, but it is in a much stronger position than it was when Putin invaded. But there is also a 'trump' card, if you excuse the bad pun - the Ukraine can have access to Europe's weapon stocks.

This is where we have a choice. Across Europe, civil servants and treasury officials are being rightly sidelined as politicians are asking their militaries what their geo-strategic options are. The stark fact is that, at present, we could, just about barely defend ourselves. We have limited war stocks, hollowed out armed forces and a currently moribund defence/industrial sector.

That's the bad news. The good news is that Europe has the industrial capacity to replenish and rearm, fast. By encouraging industry and sharing capabilities we already have in our inventories and in preproduction all the systems we, and the Ukraine needs. Our technological lead, in areas such as aerospace and cyber, is equivalent to that of the USA, and a decade plus ahead of Russia and China.

We can afford to use our stocks to support the Ukraine. Russia can't fight a two front war, it is bogged down in this one, burning its economy down pouring over a quarter of its GDP into a war it's not winning.

Rather than spending 25% of our GDP, we are collectively being asked to build up to 3.75%. Even at that we will outspend Russia, coming collectively close to what either the USA or China spend.

Europe can manufacture five/six Generation Fighter Aircraft that can match the best the USA produces. We can, and do, build tanker aircraft, better tanks, stealth drones, MLRS. We can deploy satellite surveillance systems, cyber offensive and defensive measures. We must have the will to do so, and collectively.

We already have, in non US Nato, more aircraft, ships, submarines, artillery, tanks that work, attack helicopters - the only thing we don't have is larger troop numbers, but again, we haven't had to resort to barely literate conscripts or filling our tanks and ranks from the prison population.

On the tank issue, Russia has struggled against a few dozen Nato standard tanks - what could it do against hundreds of them?

There is also another opportunity. The way in which president Trump has been seen to undermine the Ukraine has been noted in every capital. As Europeans, with the UK taking the lead as the pre-eminent defence power, we should be reaching out to other like-minded nations who previously thought that the US had their back. Technologically advanced, and fearful, nations such as Japan, Taiwan, South Korea, Israel and Australia will all be seeking insurance measures.

A new set of strategic partnerships should be sought.

The USA and president Trump could still surprise us and welcome Ukraine back into its security fold. But the direction of travel, since the Obama presidency, has been clear. There is no going back, we have to support the Ukraine and take the hard measures to defend ourselves. If we do it right, we might even help save part of the international system for like-minded nations. That is a choice we can make.

The Ukraine's is much starker - fight on, with our help, or be removed from the map.

Slava Ukraini.

Steve Aiken OBE MLA holds a PhD from University of Cambridge in International Relations and was a nuclear submarine commander. He spent much of his military service in the Middle East and under the waters around Russia