Owen Polley: The year everything changed ...but mostly stayed the same

This year, in the UK, so much changed and yet so much stayed the same. The monarchy is a symbol of continuity for our nation and it was fitting that, while people expressed their sorrow and sense of loss after the death of Queen Elizabeth II, they showed an equally intense outburst of enthusiasm for the new King, Charles III.
King Charles III “can be a stabilising figure”King Charles III “can be a stabilising figure”
King Charles III “can be a stabilising figure”

The Queen’s funeral and the King’s accession were defining events that brought the nation together, and most of us will remember them for the rest of our lives. In 2023, the coronation is likely to bring about a similar sense of togetherness, during a year when separatists in Scotland had hoped to stage a second divisive referendum on breaking up the UK.

The new King started his reign carefully and surefootedly. He may never be loved to the degree that his mother was loved, but he can be a stabilising figure nonetheless.

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In contrast, the political situation at Westminster has been turbulent. The Conservative government veered from one crisis to the next. We’ve seen three prime ministers, over the past twelve months, as well as an endless parade of cabinet ministers, many of whom were in post only for weeks.

So much chaos has unfolded since Boris Johnson resigned in July, that many centre-right commentators have been tempted to rehabilitate his premiership. He at least had a mandate, they argue, both from the country and the Conservative Party.

This ignores that extent to which the anarchy that followed can be traced back to Johnson’s time as PM. There is a valid argument that the partygate scandal, which eventually caused his downfall, was overblown.

But the fact that he assured the House of Commons that no regulations had been broken cast more doubt on the honesty of a premier whose reputation for mendacity was already exceptionally high.

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The final pantomime of cabinet resignations and appointments, as Boris hung grimly to power for as long as possible, was one of the least dignified political exits we’ve ever seen.

The affection that Johnson still commands on the right of the Conservative Party, as well as the conviction that he could make a comeback, is a testament to faith trumping experience.

They saw him impose Covid lockdowns three times, expand the role of the state like never before and drive a hard border through the UK by agreeing to the Northern Ireland Protocol, yet there remains an implication that he was just badly advised or that he wouldn’t repeat the same mistakes if he were given another chance.

Many people were plainly drawn to the power of Johnson’s personality, which couldn’t be said for his successor, Liz Truss. Ms Truss’s tumultuous few weeks in Number 10 will be remembered chiefly through the medium of pub quiz answers.

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She was manifestly unsuited to the prime minister’s office and failed to prepare the public or the markets for her economic policies.

Ms Truss was replaced by Rishi Sunak, who is credited with stabilising the government. He was certainly one of the first high profile politicians to flag up the risk of spiralling inflation, back in 2021, but he is yet to provide a sense of purpose to his administration.

None of the three PMs managed to solve the problems created by the NI protocol, even though the government introduced a bill, in June 2022, that was supposed to achieve this aim. It remains parked in the House of Lords, allegedly to allow Mr Sunak to negotiate a deal with the EU.

The Stormont Executive collapsed in February, after the DUP’s first minister Paul Givan resigned from his post in protest against the protocol. An election in May compounded the political divisions, as voters made Sinn Fein Northern Ireland’s biggest party, despite its intrinsic links to the IRA.

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The chances of Stormont being revived early in the new year seem slim, because it is unlikely that there will be an agreement between Britain and the EU that genuinely repairs the aspects of the Union damaged by the protocol.

While the last twelve months, then, have seen dramatic changes, very few things have changed substantially.

The Stormont Assembly and the executive are not operating, but Northern Ireland faces all the same challenges that it faced before their collapse, and many of those were caused by decades of failures in devolved government.

Despite winning a convincing majority in 2019, the Conservative government looked like it could be in trouble at the start of 2022. A year later and, despite all the dramas, it is in largely the same position, and arguably worse off.

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It will go into the next election with its reputation damaged and without the spectre of Jeremy Corbyn as prime minister to focus the minds of floating voters. Rishi Sunak has put an end to the sense that the Tories are in chaos, but has he put a distinctive stamp on the government now he is in charge?

As yet, you would have to say no.

Up to this year, the late Queen was the only monarch most of us had known. We could have been forgiven for being anxious about the effect that her passing might have on the country and the monarchy.

Some of the examples of lack of change I’ve given, involved problems that haven’t been tackled. The smooth transition to King Charles’ reign is one happier instance of continuity being welcome.