Philip Smith: A realignment within unionist politics that creates a vehicle for transformative change would be a game-changer

Unionism cannot continue on this downward spiral that has included losing the first minister post and largest party status at the assembly, Westminster and in local government.

It is commonly thought that while political unionism is in bad shape, referendum unionism is in much better health. I’m not so sure this is true as the perception that unionism is in reverse gear, slowly but steadily having votes and seats whittled away, and divided to a degree that is self-defeating cannot be helpful for the long-term sustainability of the Union.

I believe there is room for positivity. The facts stack up for the Union. Political unionism’s wounds can be healed. The total unionist vote at the Westminster election is still ahead of combined nationalism.

The Sinn Fein and Ireland’s Future demand for a border poll by the end of the decade is just performative for their voter base. If they were honest, they would admit that a referendum is very far away and any chance of success for them is even further away.

Owen Polley asks whether ‘unionism needs to be united or just better at what it does’ - the answer is both. A realignment within unionism would undoubtedly deliver greater electoral success through less vote splitting, but any re-organisation needs to be based on substance or it will not be sustainable nor be able to grow the unionist base, and while unionism is still ahead on votes, it is much diminished and unable to motivate large swathes of its natural voters. A policy driven approach is essential to sell the Union and its benefits to the widest audience.

Primarily, unionism must do what both the larger unionist parties agreed was the priority at the last election - make Northern Ireland work. That can only be done by making Stormont work and delivering real improvement to the lives of people here.

The NHS is still the feather in the cap for the Union. Unionism currently holds the health portfolio and needs to ensure our free-at-the-point-of-care health service remains the game changer it has previously been for the Union by implementing the radical reforms proposed by Bengoa and by improving performance.

The Irish economy, with its current budget surplus, is often highlighted as a reason to embrace constitutional change. People have forgotten the ‘boom and bust’ nature of the Republic’s economy, as we saw in 2008 when the Celtic Tiger required a bail out from the UK in response to the banking crisis.

If the incoming Trump presidency follows through on proposals for tariffs and the repatriation of US company profits it will have a major impact on Ireland’s corporation tax base and its ability to attract foreign direct investment. All of this uncertainty means the immense benefit of remaining in the world’s sixth largest economy is critically important for all our futures and should never be put at risk. Unionism should be shouting this from the rooftops!

Infrastructure in Northern Ireland needs a radical overhaul and an injection of significant capital funding. Whether it is a crumbling road network, a water system that is polluting and blocking new housing growth or a transport system that is not fit for purpose, all show the need for radical reform to improve both our economy and our standard of living comparative to both GB and the Republic.

The Windsor Framework/NI Protocol will be an ongoing issue and the impact of removing us from economic integration with the UK has and will create hardship for many sectors of our economy as well as cementing a democratic deficit.

The ‘best of both worlds’ as promised by Alliance, SDLP and Sinn Fein has failed to deliver one major investment. Ignoring the implications of this is economic stupidity and therefore solutions to remove the Irish Sea border must continue to be vigorously pursued.

Finally, unionism by its very nature cannot stop at Larne and Newry. If unionism cannot weave itself into wider UK politics then it risks being undermined by both its irrelevance in Great Britain and by Sinn Fein’s all-Ireland political agenda. This does not necessarily require formal tie ups with a GB political party but does need a process of outreach and communication to win friends for Northern Ireland’s place in the Union.

All of the above can be progressed via a pro-Union think tank or a campaign group like a unionist Ireland’s Future, but ultimately politics is about power and votes and seats are required to maximise influence. The only real game-changer is a realignment within unionist politics that creates a vehicle for transformative change in government and improved electoral performance.

The initial three-year window is now down to two and the clock is ticking. Action is required to re-build political unionism and to make the positive case for the Union and Northern Ireland’s place within it.

The time is now. Let’s get on with it and make unionism work to make Northern Ireland work.

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l Philip Smith is the co-founder of the pro-Union campaign group Uniting UK, a councillor on Ards & North Down Borough Council and a former UUP MLA for Strangford and Mayor of Ards