Survey is latest reason to think support for staying in UK is high in Northern Ireland

A new poll has come out from Liverpool University, which has a number of striking findings.

One of the most significant is that in a border poll 66% of those who express a preference would vote to remain in the UK.

In other words, there is almost a two-to-one majority for remaining part of Union.

Yet the headline figure for staying in the UK is 58.6%, which sounds a much more marginal lead.

There has been polls in recent years, most of them by LucidTalk, which appear to show a much narrower lead for Northern Ireland remaining in the UK over joining the Republic of Ireland, but the figures are rarely presented as a percentage of the divide among those who have made a decision.

There is debate among political observers as to whether or not it is appropriate to exclude people who have not stated an intention to vote, just as there is debate as to whether internet-based polls or face-to-face are more accurate (the former is said be some pundits to be less rigorous, but the other is sometimes said to less likely to get honest answers).

But the point is that the polls showing a tight race in a border poll have been breathlessly reported, when other findings showing a wide margin in favour UK are neglected.

The Liverpool survey also has the DUP on 20.6%, a mere 2.9% behind Sinn Fein, whereas as a widely reported recent LucidTalk poll had SF 12% ahead. So SF might not be as assured of the first minister position as it is claimed.

There are less encouraging results in the Liverpool survey for unionists, suggesting relatively low levels of outright opposition to the Northern Ireland Protocol. But that is a complex matter in which respondents can say seemingly confused things. For example, a large minority of SF supporters seem to want to reject the recent EU concessions on checks.

In summary, there are good grounds to believe that support for our unfettered place in the Union are very high.

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