Economist questions logic of Mike Nesbitt's warning to Trump administration on 'favourable' UK trade deal

Esmond Birnie says that the “logic” of Mike Nesbitt’s comments is concern about deepening the Irish Sea border, but that he has “pushed the logic too far”.

The health minister met an official from the Trump administration during his trip to the United States last week – and warned that a better US trade deal for the UK than Europe would be the “the worst possible position” for Northern Ireland.

In a video posted on his X account on Thursday, Mike Nesbitt said he had met with Warren Stephens, the incoming US ambassador to the UK. He said: “I impressed upon him if the USA does a trade deal with the UK, and then a less favourable one with the European Union, Northern Ireland could end up in the worst possible position”.

Senior economist at Ulster University Dr Esmond Birnie told the News Letter: “I see Mike's ‘logic’, he's really worried about an even greater gap opening up in the Irish Sea. However he's pushed the logic too far since he could be interpreted as saying Great Britain should suffer a punishing set of Trump tariffs.

“I'd rather (as a free trader economist) preserve as much free trade as Starmer can charm out of Trump. If needs be Northern Ireland should appeal to the EU for an opt out from any EU retaliation tariffs – or the onus should be on the EU to operate a customs border on the Irish land border”, he said.

​At the weekend, Jim Allister branded Mr Nesbitt’s comments on a trade deal “absurd” and said it picks the issue up at the wrong end.

The TUV boss told the News Letter: “‘The UUP leader’s suggestion that the US should not do a better trade deal with the UK than the EU is absurd and picks the issue up at the wrong end.

“The UK should get the best possible trade deal with the United States, but the United States should only agree that deal with the United States when no part of the United Kingdom is subject to the EU customs code”.

The consequences for Northern Ireland in the event of an escalating trade dispute between the US and EU are an increasing cause of concern for local politicians. The province could be hit by American tariffs targeting the EU because of its trading position under the Windsor Framework.

The deputy First Minister has warned that Northern Ireland cannot become “collateral damage” in such a scenario.

Emma Little Pengelly said she had used the trip to raise the issue to raise the issue on Capitol Hill and with the new UK ambassador to the US, Lord Mandelson She said the trip was "about showing up, standing up and speaking up for Northern Ireland” because and warned of “consequences for NI… if this goes wrong.”