Sam McBride: Missing key details, NI’s lockdown exit plan just delays the real decisions

It was no surprise this morning that the Executive’s document did not set out even an indicative timetable for easing the lockdown – that had been stated openly by ministers over recent days.
Arlene Foster and Michelle O’Neill speaking to the media yesterdayArlene Foster and Michelle O’Neill speaking to the media yesterday
Arlene Foster and Michelle O’Neill speaking to the media yesterday

However, two significant aspects of the plan were not necessarily anticipated, and combine to make this strategy less significant than would otherwise have been the case.

Even without dates, the document could have set out the exact criteria which would have to be met for each stage of the lockdown to be lifted.

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For instance, it could have specified that when the R number – the rate at which the virus is spreading – falls to a certain level and when a certain percentage of ICU beds are unoccupied then we will enter the next step of the plan.

Instead, ministers have set out far vaguer principles – not criteria – on which they will base each decision.

Secondly, the document could have made clear that even though the dates and the criteria are unclear, each phase will itself be firmly tied together.

That would at least give clarity that when activity X is made legal, then so will business type Y. However, instead it is said that parts of one step may go ahead while other parts will not. That seems to undermine the significance of what at first sight appeared to be contained within this document – the step at which each restriction would be ended.

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Ministers will argue that they need the greatest flexibility to respond to the situations which may arise.

But regardless of whether that is correct, in political terms it seems that ministers have essentially delayed the real political decision – and for all that some ministers have referred to moving based on science, it will be a political decision because the science is evolving, often contradictory and cannot weigh against each other some of the factors which have to be considered.

Yesterday the Executive appeared unusually united. Perhaps that was because what happened was simply delaying the real decisions as to when and how lockdown ends.

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