In the immediate aftermath of the EU referendum result, there was shock and dismay across Irish nationalism, which feared the return of a hard border and a more nationalistic UK moving further from the rest of Europe.
That feeling lingers, although it appears to have been somewhat lessened by the Irish government’s robust stance in the Brexit negotiations, and the willingness of the EU to endorse that stance, putting the issue of the Irish border at or near the top of the talks process.
In the referendum, unionism voted largely to leave the EU, but there was sizable pro-Remain unionist vote. But, just as there is a unity across nationalism to Brexit, so there is emerging a unified unionist front in opposition to the ‘backstop’ option which Mr Barnier articulated again yesterday.
That option – which only comes into play if the UK and the EU cannot agree on other solutions to avoiding a hard border, such as the use of technology or the entire UK remaining in a customs union – would involve regulatory alignment across the island of Ireland and customs checks between Northern Ireland and GB.
Last week DUP deputy leader Nigel Dodds said characterised such a stance as “almost the annexation of Northern Ireland”.
Although there are unionists who are fervently pro-EU, almost none of them are in support of the EU’s suggestion of an Irish Sea goods border.
Yesterday the liberal UUP MLA Steve Aiken, who backed the Remain side, used the same word as he denounced the EU’s stance. Two months ago Lord Empey, one of David Trimble’s key negotiators during the talks which led to the Belfast Agreement, wrote to Mr Barnier to express “deep concerns” about an EU approach which he said “undermines the Belfast Agreement and the constitutional integrity of Northern Ireland”.
In a pan-European negotiation about trade, security and constitutional principle, Northern Ireland is in some ways an insignificant area.
But with the Irish border an issue of emblematic significance to both sides, it has become critical to the talks.
Unionist unease will not stop Brussels endorsing the stance of one of its members, Ireland. But the fierce unionist-nationalist split in Northern Ireland makes it more difficult for the EU to present its solution as an attempt to save the Belfast Agreement or even peace itself.