Irish unity might be closer than Alex Kane says

Alex Kane ('˜Brexit upended things but I still don't expect Irish unity,' June 18) is very sanguine about the future of the Union and blasé in dismissing the prospects for a united Ireland over the course of the next 20 years.
Many young Protestant voters could cast a ballot for a united Ireland in a border poll if the post-Brexit UK declinesMany young Protestant voters could cast a ballot for a united Ireland in a border poll if the post-Brexit UK declines
Many young Protestant voters could cast a ballot for a united Ireland in a border poll if the post-Brexit UK declines

He advances two reasons why unification is unlikely to happen anytime soon:

1. that the people of Northern Ireland aren’t up for it, and

2. that the Republic isn’t ready for it.

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He acknowledges that there are ongoing demographic changes in favour of the nationalist population and that Brexit, if not well executed, could lead to an increase in Republican sentiment.

But then his unionist credentials come through and his logic goes out the window.

No one is saying that a border poll, if held after the Brexit deal is closed, would produce a majority for unity – though the result could be close. But if the Republic continues to consolidate its prosperity and the EU overcomes its present difficulties, and if the UK goes into a long-term economic decline – all of which seem to me to be likely – the referendum ten years after that would almost certainly produce a significant majority in favour of a united Ireland, with considerable support from young Protestant voters.

By that time, too, whatever government is in charge in Dublin would, with backing from London and Brussels, be more than ready to embark on a historic transformation.

But let’s hope that Alex and I, in spite of our ages and diets, remain around long enough to see what actually happens.

One way or another, we are in for an exciting ride.

Walter Ellis, Brittany