'Business and politicians alike have challenges to face but also a role to play'

As an island economy, we need only look to the seas around us for metaphors that capture the challenges businesses are facing.

The relentless storms of the Protocol; the undercurrents causing Stormont’s collapse; the ebb and flow at Westminster; the changing tides in the war in Ukraine affecting food, fuel and fertiliser; and the squalls of inflation and `recession - all battering us as we face into winter.

The resulting heavy seas and cross currents are buffeting business – lifting some but wrecking others - leaving a trail of destruction that will take years to repair. It is an unprecedented scenario that demands expert navigation - but who will give that leadership?

Just like weather systems, almost all the challenges we face are influenced by each other. Stormont’s collapse is linked to the Protocol; Westminster’s wobbles contributed to hikes in borrowing costs; UK Government is now less effective in resolving the fallout from Stormont; and it has ground to make up in negotiating with the EU. A recession is looming but we’re seeing counter-intuitive tax increases and cuts in public spending.

Faced with all of these metaphorical storms and currents, business and politicians alike have challenges to face but also a role to play. Rather than see the whole as being an overwhelming situation that threatens to engulf us, we need to take each challenge individually, scope it out, work through it, and progress. And we should take whatever help we can, and foster as much goodwill as possible.

In an echo of the Good Friday Agreement negotiations, we need to assemble a ‘coalition of the willing’ to press forward with addressing the NI Protocol. All five main Northern Ireland parties agree the Protocol “needs to be fixed”; as do the EU, the UK and the US. President Biden upped the stakes this week by pressurising the EU to recognise that a resolution must be achieved by the 25th anniversary of the Good Friday Agreement, on 10 April next year. And the signs are encouraging.

Cole Porter famously wrote about the strange, downbeat change in mood created by changing “from major to minor”. By contrast, the mood-music between the EU and the UK has definitely been transposed in recent weeks - from minor to major. A positive, upbeat, confident, can-do sense of positivity has started to permeate the relationship – brighter and cheerier than the dark and gloomy mood that prevailed for much of this year. This is both welcome and important. In itself, the change of key won’t resolve the challenges, but it creates a much better spirit in which intransigence can be set aside, ideology can be replaced by pragmatism, and progress can be made.

With the US taking an active interest, there are two reasons for optimism. One is that their role may bring capacity and resource to help move the situation forward. The other is that they are entering more publicly into the process, just at the moment of the key-change. Would they do so if the outcome were still entirely uncertain? That seems unlikely, so their presence may be that of a catalyst – helping create reaction and change.

Successful resolution of the Protocol is a precursor for our local parties to overcome their differences and return to power-sharing at Stormont. As an institution, its performance has not been inspiring, but devolved power gives a better opportunity for well-informed decision taking than the alternative.

In parallel, Westminster is striving to steady the ship and plot a new course that will reassure financial markets, balance the books, and set the country on a path to recovery. It will not be easy, but we will see the charts on Thursday when Chancellor Hunt sets out his plans.

And in support of all of these major moves, civil servants and business owners alike can and must step up and play their part. Prompt payment of invoices can be the difference between survival and collapse. Last year in Northern Ireland, the public sector received around 1,750,000 invoices from businesses for goods provided and work carried out. But a staggering quarter of a million of these were paid late. Sadly, though, this shocking behaviour isn’t restricted to the public sector; many larger businesses also fail to pay their smaller suppliers on time. This is one of those challenges that can be sorted out at no extra cost but which can deliver high value.

At a time when we are facing so many challenges we must all step up – politicians, civil servants, business owners alike – to tackle each one that is within our sphere of influence for, as Shakespeare said, “we are surely now afloat on a full sea and must take the current when it serves, or lose our ventures”.