Northern Ireland is at the mercy of a volatile market due to home heating oil dependency

The most recent estimate by the Northern Ireland Fuel Poverty Coalition is that 68% of households heat their homes using oil.

The cost of 900 litres of oil now stands at £782.69. It had been £454.75 in December 2021 and £1181.53 in early March 2022. As such the Province’s fuel poverty rate is likely to be much greater than the 22% recorded in 2016.

Experts can’t say if oil is on a downward trend or if it could rocket again.

The Consumer Council’s Raymond Gormley said: “It’s been like a yo-yo recently. I think even if you made the oil market regulated you won’t stop those fluctuations, you’re going to pay the global price regardless.

“What I always say to people, avoid buying oil in the winter months. Get oil out of season, in the summer, if you can.”

Asked if home heating oil could return to the price it had been before war in Ukraine – £555, Raymond said: “I can’t see it coming down anytime soon, certainly not to those levels.

"The same could be said of electricity and gas. Prices are high and they’ll remain high for the foreseeable future.”

Discussing NI’s gas network, Raymond said: “Gas was brought here in 1996, that was around greater Belfast. Eventually it spread, but there’s always going to be places where it’s not going to go because of the rurality of the place.

“I’d say around 25% of homes are on gas, but it’s only ever going to get to 30 or 35% I would guess.”

Jack Wilkinson-Dix from the Energy Saving Trust said a reliance on oil and slow uptake on gas presented both problems and opportunities.

He said: “You’ll have statistics that say 75% of homes in GB are on the gas grid but there’s plenty of areas in rural parts of Scotland and Wales that are similar to Northern Ireland.

"Oil dependency has definitely been shown to put Northern Ireland at a disadvantage when it comes to fuel poverty.

“In terms of decarbonisation it’s starting from a not ideal position, but it depends how you frame it. Because there’s less of a gas network it would be more straightforward to swap over to heat pumps.

“And Northern Ireland has been a real leader in wind power. That’s an area where Northern Ireland can really take the lead in producing cheap, green electricity.”

Jack added: "Northern Ireland has got some unique challenges because of its dependency on oil, its rurality, and looking away from energy for homes to electric transport – there’s less of a charging infrastructure.

"However, what’s been really positive has been the commitment to improve through an energy strategy and new commitments to reaching net zero.”

He commented: “Because oil is not regulated, the price of it can fluctuate a lot. And because people are having to buy in bulk, say twice a year, they can’t anticipate how much it will cost so you have these financial issues pushing people into poverty.

"That’s the big issue with oil. There are challenges in terms of decarbonisation but for the here and now, in an energy crisis, the volatility of the price of oil is a real issue.”