NI must spring forward, not fall back

As summer comes to a close, the decisions we make in the next few months will be critical to how the Northern Irish economy fares in the years ahead.

The cost of coronavirus on the economy is becoming clearer by the day. And even though we will need to keep learning to live with it for some time to come, there is much we can do to shape our own destiny.

We must resolve to an autumn of action, aiming for a V-shaped recovery and flattening the unemployment curve. I have every faith that with the right decisions we can. Going for economic growth will require building confidence, managing risks and looking ahead - not just dealing with the crisis of today. 

First off, the Executive and business must find ways to build greater confidence. More people are now holidaying, visiting family and friends. That same attitude now needs to extend to helping more people return to their workplaces confidently and safely. It will be an essential part of our recovery. The Economy Minister has been quite forthright on this subject, and this is very much welcomed.

You’ll have seen the reports of our city centres, usually busy with passing trade, are instead quiet, leaving many businesses on the edge. And for young people’s development, learning skills on-the-job and in-the-workplace is vital. With so few employees working onsite that means, in some cases, apprenticeships or entry positions will be impossible to start.  

Remote working has been a real success for many firms and employees, and none of these many benefits should be lost. However, some businesses fear productivity could stall if people remain working from home full-time indefinitely. And for some individuals, juggling work with childcare responsibilities or missing the social aspects of the office has been hard. Every business must choose what is right for them and their staff. Things won’t return to how businesses operated pre-Covid-19, nor should they. But there is a middle ground to find as the economy reopens.

Undoubtedly reopening NI schools and childcare provision has been a real help in getting people back to work, not to mention getting young people back learning. The focus now must be on a further expansion of the test and trace system.

And we will need to manage the wider risks in the months ahead. Many businesses – perfectly viable before the crisis - are by no means out of the woods yet, and they will be essential to any recovery.

The UK Government’s support for the economy has been instrumental in the initial wave of the crisis, saving countless jobs and livelihoods. As support schemes begin to unwind, cash flow remains one of the biggest issues for NI companies. Some firms are starting to bounce back, but for many others the recovery feels a way off.

Further UK Government action is going to be needed this autumn - it’s just a matter of what form of support that takes. It might be a more targeted wage subsidy scheme or an expansion in direct support to businesses via grants. With forecasts for NI unemployment to reach over 100,000, it’s clear that additional government action is going to be needed.

Finally, we need to look to the long-term. The UK Government has already made positive strides in its aim to drive greater investment for a greener, more innovative and higher-skilled economic future. In NI, Minister Nichola Mallon has moved to establish an Infrastructure Commission to provide much welcome assistance in long-term planning for a cleaner, greener and sustainable and inclusive future. But in the days and months ahead, we need to see greater agility and delivery of support from the Executive to the most affected sectors and sections of our workforce.

Looking forward also means making sure our new trading relationship with the EU gets off to a good start. That begins first and foremost with securing a Brexit deal that supports a sustainable implementation of the NI Protocol. Both sides can ill-afford disagreement.

In many ways, this month will set the tone for the autumn and for the years to come. Taking the right decisions in the coming weeks can set us on a path to economic recovery and keep us safe.

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